The Evolution of Robots
"Robotics is an interdisciplinary industry involving various technologies such as industrial design, computers, artificial intelligence, and big data, as well as chips, precision instruments, electronic circuits, machinery, and manufacturing materials. Its applications are extremely wide-ranging," Zhang Yi, CEO of iiMedia Research, told a reporter from China Electronics News. To some extent, the development and application of robotics technology is considered an important standard for measuring a country's comprehensive manufacturing strength and level of industrial automation.
Robotics research can be broadly divided into three stages. The first stage involved robots with only "hands," operating on fixed programs and lacking external feedback capabilities. The second stage developed force, touch, and vision, enabling them to respond to external information. The third stage saw robots learn, reason, make decisions, and plan autonomously, achieving intelligent decision-making. Robots have gradually evolved from lower to higher levels, with increasing digitization, networking, and intelligence, leading to a growing demand for chips, software, and algorithms. High-end intelligent robots are becoming a key area of research and investment for players in this field.
Established robot manufacturers, such as the "Big Four" (FANUC of Japan, Yaskawa Electric, ABB of Switzerland, and KUKA of Germany), are all known for their technological prowess. ABB Robotics, in particular, possesses core technologies in motion control systems, directly addressing the challenges of robot manufacturing. Furthermore, its robot algorithms are considered the best among the Big Four.
In recent years, Tesla has continuously released research results such as brain-computer interface chips, AI chips, and humanoid robot carriers, which have not only ignited the market but also attracted considerable controversy.
A PhD in Artificial Intelligence and Robotics from Carnegie Mellon University stated, "Modern artificial intelligence is based on learning algorithms, but the effectiveness of these algorithms in the field of machine control is still far from satisfactory." He also pointed out that hardware and algorithms in the field of robotics are highly interrelated, and there are still too many challenges to overcome at the hardware level in almost all technical details, such as joint control, fine motor skills, and visual information understanding.
Meanwhile, domestic companies are striving to catch up. Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have personally entered the fray, attempting to break through with self-developed robots. Baidu's "Apollo Car Robot" has generated a warm response. Alibaba's "Little Donkey" mobile robot uses L4-level autonomous driving technology and is already in regular operation in dozens of universities and communities across the country. Tencent's Robotics Lab has also quietly launched products such as the quadrupedal mobile robot Jamoca and a self-balancing wheeled mobile robot.
Cross-industry innovation by home appliance companies has brought new possibilities for the application of robots. Take Gree as an example: since announcing its formal entry into the intelligent equipment field in 2013, and with the debut of its high-load robot GR600 in 2021, Gree has achieved technological upgrades in five major areas: CNC machine tools, robots, logistics and warehousing, energy conservation and environmental protection, and factory automation. "Gree not only wants to replace human labor with machines itself, but also to help others replace human labor with machines, opening up a second track outside of home appliance manufacturing," said Dong Mingzhu.
Similarly, Midea, which also transitioned from the home appliance industry to robotics, chose to rapidly enhance its robot R&D and application capabilities through acquisitions. The acquisition of KUKA is considered a key move in this strategy, and its initial results are already evident. According to Midea's official operating results for the first half of 2021, its robotics and automation business has turned a profit, achieving 242 million yuan in profit in the first half of 2021.
Established domestic robotics companies are actively exploring niche markets and seeking new breakthroughs. DJI, known for its drones, has set its sights on educational robots. Siasun Robot & Automation Co., Ltd. has also secured orders in areas such as new energy vehicles and intelligent server manufacturing.
The evolution of robots is no longer just about expanding their own capabilities and functions, but has entered a new stage of co-evolution between humans and machines. On the one hand, with the addition of more information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, precision computing, and machine learning, the form and function of robot products are changing, enabling them to collaborate with humans to do more things. On the other hand, the exploration and innovation of different players in the robotics field are enriching its commercial application scenarios, which will also force the robotics industry to accelerate its iterative upgrades.
A feast of capital
As one of the most mature applications of artificial intelligence technology, robots have attracted astonishing amounts of capital investment. Related data shows that in the nearly ten years since the development of my country's robot industry, there have been nearly 3,000 financing events, with a total financing amount exceeding 100 billion yuan. In the first half of 2021 alone, more than 120 robot companies received financing, totaling over 10 billion yuan.
Among them, Yinghe Robotics, led by Meituan, completed three rounds of financing in just 10 months; Pudu Technology announced in May that it had completed its third round of financing worth hundreds of millions of yuan within a year; and Mech-Mind Robotics, also led by Meituan, completed its third large-scale financing in the past year in April. Flexiv, a general-purpose intelligent robot company, became the company with the highest single-round financing amount in the global general-purpose robot field after completing its Series B financing last year.
Looking at the lead investors, besides professional investment institutions such as Sequoia Capital China, Shunwei Capital, and Poly Capital, many industry giants including ABB, BMW, Amazon, ByteDance, and Country Garden have also shown their enthusiasm for robotics. ByteDance has successively invested in several robotics or artificial intelligence-related companies, including Yunwhale Intelligent, Yunzhi Softcom, Songzhi Intelligent, Lingxi, and Eredi. Country Garden plans to invest 80 billion yuan in the robotics field over five years.
Industry analysts believe that the explosive growth in investment and financing in the robotics market is supported by multiple factors, including national conditions, policies, and social needs. The influx of substantial capital into this sector will inevitably accelerate competition among players, helping to weed out underperformers and restructure the industry order.
However, some argue that the robotics market needs to cool down. "To stand out in the robotics industry, more time and experience are required," Zhang Yi stated frankly. "Actually, I'm not optimistic about the robotics investments of internet giants. Currently, most of their investments seem rather impulsive and short-sighted." Cheetah Mobile CEO Fu Sheng also said, "Only after truly entering this industry did I realize how difficult it is to make robots."
In reality, the current level of intelligence in robots is only in its initial stage. A truly "intelligent" robot should possess dexterous hands, keen eyes, and a brain capable of quickly learning various tasks. An industry insider who wished to remain anonymous analyzed: "Unlike traditional consumer products, robots require an extremely long time cycle from project initiation to actual commercialization. This is essentially a high-stakes gamble for capital; success means taking off on a hot trend, while failure means being swallowed up by the wave of successive waves. A cautious attitude should be maintained to avoid blindly entering the market."
How big is the market?
According to a report by the Boston Consulting Group, the global robotics market was valued at approximately $25 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $160 billion to $260 billion by 2030. IDC predicts that China's robotics industry accounted for over 30% of the global market in 2020. Looking solely at the Asia-Pacific region ($133 billion), China holds nearly half of the robotics industry.
Since the invention of the first industrial robot prototype in 1980, China's robot industry has experienced rapid development. On the one hand, the industrial robot sector is booming. According to the "Robot Industry Operation Report for January-December 2020" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a total of 237,000 industrial robots were produced in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, setting a new record for the highest single-year output of industrial robots in China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January and February 2021, the national output of industrial robots from enterprises above designated size reached 45,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 117.6%, also setting a new record for the same period in previous years.
On the other hand, the potential of service robots should not be underestimated. A report by CCID Consulting shows that the demand for service robots in China experienced explosive growth in 2020, reaching a market size of 28.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%. A report by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute points out that professional service robots have broad development prospects in various industry scenarios such as healthcare, finance, warehousing/logistics, and customer service/catering. Currently, medical robots and logistics robots are the main application areas.
Chinese robots are reshaping the global robotics landscape. Shao Tianlan, founder and CEO of Mech-Mind Robotics, stated that only China currently possesses the capability to build an integrated mechatronics and software company (combining mechanics, electronics, algorithms, software, and applications) because only China can bring together diverse talent and application scenarios. "Chinese companies are expected to lead the world in robotics in the future, developing into companies with global market reach and commercial value far exceeding that of the 'Big Four' (referring to the four major robotics companies)," an industry expert commented.
However, the drawbacks of China's robotics industry development are gradually becoming apparent. "From our R&D experience, there are two major prerequisites for the large-scale deployment of robots: solving the challenges of different application scenarios and solving the cost challenges," Yuan Tingting, an engineer at DAMO Academy, told a reporter from China Electronics News. "Whether it's the challenges of different application scenarios or the cost challenges, they will ultimately come down to the challenges of technology."
Taking logistics robots as an example, in terms of scenarios, last-mile logistics scenarios such as schools, communities, and industrial parks are far more complex than people imagine, and are typical "unstructured scenarios." The interaction between unmanned vehicles and road participants is a very complex game problem. In terms of cost, if technological products aimed at large-scale application cannot reduce costs to a level that the industrial chain can mass-produce and ordinary users can afford, then no matter how cool the design is, it is just a "good-looking but not practical" "castle in the air."
Judging from relevant patent applications, Chinese robot companies submit a large number of utility model and design patent applications, but fewer invention patent applications with high technological content. There is also a lack of research and development achievements related to core technologies such as RVs and harmonic reducers, particularly concerning core components. Zhang Yi frankly stated, "In terms of key technologies, materials, and components, my country still lags behind international advanced levels. Currently, robots on the market generally suffer from severe product homogenization, small profit margins, and insufficient technological maturity." Furthermore, the imbalance between supply and demand for talent in the robot industry is becoming increasingly prominent.
What kind of robots are needed?
Based on technology maturity and demand analysis, the Boston Consulting Group believes that the global robotics market will have three possible development paths: First, the market's demand for personalized robots will continue to increase; second, robots in some fields will become standardized automated equipment; and third, breakthroughs will be made in artificial intelligence, adaptability, and connectivity, resulting in a series of intelligent modules capable of analyzing complex and dynamic scenarios.
What kind of robots do we really need? Returning to the original intention behind robot development, scientists actually want to use them to "free up our hands," replacing humans in performing simple, repetitive tasks or dangerous jobs. Therefore, the development of robots will dynamically change in accordance with the evolving needs of humanity at different stages.
Ding Han, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out: "The development of robots is endless." In his view, as human demands on robots continue to increase, robots will play an increasingly important role.
"Facing this new stage of development, we must seize opportunities and promote integrated innovation from multiple dimensions to accelerate the development of the robotics industry," said Wang Hongbo, Executive President of Harbin Institute of Technology Robot Group Co., Ltd. "First, we must innovate policies, improve industrial support, and create a favorable innovation environment. Second, we must innovate technologies, with industrial robots undergoing technological innovation in areas such as human-machine collaboration and active safety control; the development of technologies such as multi-sensor fusion and intelligent bionics will enhance the adaptability of service robots. At the same time, we must focus on marketing innovation, establishing a full lifecycle ecosystem to improve user experience, and improving the after-sales system to support application implementation. Furthermore, we should strengthen integrated innovation." For the development of China's robotics industry, a tough battle still lies ahead.
