For my country's new energy vehicle industry, the development of electric vehicles should be planned based on batteries, with increased regulation and guidance for the battery industry, and accelerated construction of a standards system and testing and evaluation system. Batteries determine the fate of electric vehicles.
Academician Yang Yusheng of the Chinese Academy of Engineering recently stated that batteries are the primary factor determining the performance of electric vehicles. The "12th Five-Year Plan" industrialization task is to make good use of and improve existing battery technologies, with a focus on vigorously developing micro and small pure electric vehicles.
Wu Zhixin, deputy director of the my country Automotive Technology Research Center, told reporters that over the past decade, the energy-saving and new energy vehicle strategies of automakers have not been fully aligned with national strategies, and price and cost have become the biggest obstacles to the marketization of new energy vehicles. Among these factors, battery costs determine the fate of electric vehicles.
Zhao Bo, Deputy Director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, explained that there are still significant differences among domestic companies in the fields of electronic control, batteries, and motors in meeting the needs of large-scale commercial use of new energy vehicles. In particular, the battery issue for new energy vehicles is a major concern; the insufficient reliability and stability of existing battery technologies, as well as the short cycle life of the products, are all factors affecting the development of new energy vehicles.
According to Peng Hongbing, director of the Electronic Technology Division of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the establishment of a battery standard system and a testing and evaluation system is the foundation for supporting the development of the industry, but it is currently a relatively weak link.
Breakthrough in battery technology will take at least 5-10 years.
The core component of new energy vehicles, the power lithium-ion battery, faces a number of technical and application problems, including high cost, reliance on imported advanced materials, short cycle life, low energy density, low design and manufacturing level, and lack of testing equipment. These are important reasons why the industrialization of new energy vehicles has been slow.
It is understood that currently 50% of China's major power lithium-ion battery products are exported, with sales expected to reach US$4 billion in 2012. The top four domestic companies are Lishen, BYD, BAK, and ATL, which together account for 36% of the domestic market share.
Peng Hongbing stated that the future market size for lithium-ion batteries in the consumer sector could reach close to $30 billion, the market size in the power sector would also be close to $30 billion, and the energy storage market might be even larger. While there are many forecasting agencies providing data, our more rational estimate is between $80 billion and $100 billion.
Despite the huge market potential, the lack of breakthroughs in key battery technologies and the resulting low energy density are fatal flaws in the short driving range of new energy vehicles. The academic community generally believes that new energy vehicles can only be industrialized on a large scale when the energy density of power lithium-ion batteries reaches 250-350 Wh/kg. Currently, the energy density of various domestically produced power lithium-ion batteries using different technologies is only around 100 Wh/kg.
Some companies are short-sighted, pursuing quick profits and neglecting in-depth research; other aspects, including key materials and equipment, particularly in the power lithium-ion battery industry, such as safety and reliability, have not been adequately studied. Furthermore, the standardized testing system is currently rather disorganized, said Peng Hongbing.
Industry experts generally believe that breakthroughs in power lithium-ion battery technology will take at least 5-10 years. Currently, the private consumer market environment is not yet mature, and battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are each pursuing their own technological paths during this transitional period; meanwhile, the market itself relies heavily on government policy.
Li Yao, general manager of Shenzhen Wotema Battery Co., Ltd., said: Technology selection is not so absolutely important; domestically, there is still a consistent tendency to produce lithium-ion batteries.
While revolutionary innovation in battery technology is needed, the domestic battery industry is plagued by overproduction and rampant speculation and backdoor listings. Very few battery manufacturers are truly profitable now. Investing in mobile phone batteries typically involves hundreds of millions to billions of yuan, but now, those making electric vehicle batteries can't even boast about investing less than 2 billion yuan. In this market environment (referring to the large-scale investment in power lithium-ion batteries), how can production not be excessive? Li Zhongdong, chairman of Henan Huanyu Group, stated.
Impatience is a problem in the corporate world, but it also exists in the government and academia. Chen Quanshi, chairman of the Electric Vehicle Branch of the my country Society of Automotive Engineers, bluntly stated this.
