In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic recession severely impacted the automotive industry, leading to a significant decline in car sales. However, the decline in electric vehicle sales was less severe than that of the overall automotive market. Analysts believe that, supported by factors such as continuous advancements in battery technology, deepening collaborations among automotive giants in battery research and development, and government incentive policies in various countries, electric vehicles may be better able to adapt to fluctuations in the global automotive market than gasoline-powered vehicles.
Battery technology continues to break through
Recently, electric vehicle battery technology has made significant progress in achieving ultra-long lifespans. In June, China's CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) launched its latest research product: a battery that can last for 16 years and has a range of 2 million kilometers. Not long ago, Tesla and General Motors in the United States also announced the development of ultra-long-life batteries.
A range of 2 million kilometers means an electric vehicle could circle the Earth 50 times without needing a battery replacement. A report in the French weekly L'Express on June 28th stated that this is a revolution in the electric vehicle industry, as previous car batteries typically had a lifespan of no more than 8 years and a range of no more than 1 million kilometers.
Extending battery life is considered a key advancement because it allows batteries to be reused in a second vehicle, which will help reduce the cost of owning an electric vehicle.
According to a report in the weekly newspaper L'Express, scientists have pushed the performance of current lithium-ion batteries to their limits. Patrice Simon, a member of the French Academy of Sciences and professor of metallurgy at the University of Toulouse, concluded after repeated experiments that the battery should last 25 years at room temperature, and even at 55 degrees Celsius, the battery life could reach twelve or thirteen years.
Some analysts point out that the results of these laboratories cannot be directly applied to the road. In reality, the driving style of electric vehicle users, weather, and road conditions all affect battery life. However, the message conveyed by the experiments is clear: lithium-ion batteries can have a much longer lifespan.
Jean-Marie Tarascon, a member of the French Academy and a professor at the Collège de France, said that we are entering the era of smart batteries, and in the future, sensors will be able to help batteries detect temperature, thereby helping to improve the diagnostic capabilities of batteries and extend their lifespan.
Industry insiders point out that battery life is only one indicator helping to drive the popularization of electric vehicles; many key battery technologies still need breakthroughs. Progress in areas such as long driving range and fast charging, which consumers are pursuing, has not been as significant as in battery life. Furthermore, the average price of batteries has not yet fallen below $100 per kilowatt-hour. This price is considered a threshold that would make electric vehicles truly competitive with traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.
According to British media reports, the latest research shows that new battery technology could enable electric vehicles to travel over 200 miles on a 10-minute charge, alleviating many drivers' concerns. Currently, it takes Tesla's Model S, a leading American electric vehicle company, 40 minutes to charge its depleted battery to 80% using a Supercharger.
In March, General Motors announced the development of a new electric vehicle battery with a range of 400 miles or more, produced at a lower cost than current batteries. CNN reported that this surpasses the range of any Tesla model, posing a significant challenge to Tesla, whose latest Model S Long Range sedan has a range of 390 miles.
General Motors has named this new battery Ultium. Reportedly, this new battery is a flexible, flat, pouch-like cell that can be placed horizontally or vertically within a battery pack. This gives car designers greater flexibility, allowing for more diverse shapes in battery packs composed of numerous cells.
General Motors says that Ultium uses very little cobalt, an expensive ingredient in electric vehicle batteries, and this, combined with ongoing production improvements, will keep battery prices down. GM says the new battery will soon cost less than $100 per kilowatt-hour.
General Motors' new batteries will be used in several of its all-new all-electric vehicles, including the recently launched fully autonomous Cruise Origin and the future Cadillac Luxury SUV.
Automakers strengthen battery R&D cooperation
The electric vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years. Data shows that global electric vehicle sales reached 2.2 million units in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 10%, accounting for 2.5% of the market share, meaning that one in every 40 passenger vehicles sold was an electric vehicle.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant decline in global car sales. However, some argue that electric vehicles are more resilient to the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic than gasoline-powered vehicles, and the electric vehicle industry is expected to recover and grow faster.
Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited), said that although the pandemic will drag down electric vehicle sales for the whole year, demand for electric vehicles will rise in early 2021. CATL is investing heavily in research and development to advance battery technology.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that global electric vehicle sales will reach around 1.7 million units in 2020, grow to 8.5 million units by 2025, reach 26 million units by 2030, and reach 54 million units by 2040.
According to the International Energy Agency, global annual sales of plug-in electric vehicles are projected to reach 23 million to 43 million units by 2030. Electric vehicles are expected to account for 57%, 26%, and 8% of total vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the United States, respectively.
Some argue that lithium-ion batteries are one of the most profitable components of electric vehicles and a key part of the electric vehicle development strategies of major automakers, making strengthened cooperation and communication among them essential. Furthermore, to meet the rapidly growing demand for electric vehicles, automakers will need millions of lithium-ion batteries, a feat difficult to achieve alone; therefore, enhanced cooperation in battery research and production is an inevitable trend.
Media reports indicate that General Motors is considering partnering with CATL to produce its Ultium battery, announced in March, to reduce costs and compliance risks. To mass-produce the battery, GM announced a joint venture with South Korea's LG Chem, investing $2.3 billion to build a battery plant in the United States. Construction on the project has already begun, and mass production is expected to commence by the end of 2022.
Tesla and Panasonic also signed a 2020 pricing agreement in June, which covers the production and supply of batteries by Panasonic at its Nevada Gigafactory. The battery production collaboration between Tesla and Panasonic has been ongoing for several years. Reportedly, after years of losses, the joint venture battery factory in Nevada has now achieved profitability for the second consecutive quarter.
According to the Nikkei Asian Review, Nissan Motor Co. announced on June 19th that it will begin discussions with Chinese battery company Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd. to jointly develop a new generation of batteries for hybrid vehicles. Nissan reportedly hopes to use these jointly developed batteries in its hybrid vehicles equipped with its proprietary e-power technology. Amidst continued sluggish sales, this collaboration is considered a key part of Nissan's strategy to strengthen its electric vehicle business, including hybrid vehicles. Nissan also intends to expand into the Chinese and European/American markets in the future, working with Sunwoda to develop more efficient batteries and accelerate its global market expansion.
Executives from Hyundai Motor and LG Group also discussed strengthening their cooperation in the electric vehicle battery business in June. It is understood that LG Chem, a subsidiary of LG Group, is already supplying lithium-ion batteries for Hyundai's all-electric vehicles, such as the Kona and Ioniq electric cars. LG Chem was also recently appointed as one of the battery suppliers for Hyundai's next-generation all-electric vehicles, which are scheduled to launch in 2022. Meanwhile, Hyundai is also advancing its automotive battery business cooperation with other companies, including Samsung Group and SK Group.
Europe's battery production capacity may surpass that of the United States.
According to foreign media reports, Europe's lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity will surpass that of the United States by 2023. Meanwhile, over the next four years, Europe's lithium-ion production capacity is projected to increase from the current 18 megawatt-hours (enough to manufacture 300,000 pure electric vehicles) to 198 megawatt-hours, while the United States is expected to only increase its capacity to 130 megawatt-hours during the same period.
Analysis indicates that in the first decade of the 21st century, the United States led in the production and sales of electric vehicles, thanks to the focus on electric vehicles by companies like Tesla and General Motors. However, since 2017, the U.S. government has taken little significant action to support its electric vehicle industry. Instead, its attempts to lower fuel efficiency standards have been met with opposition from the auto industry.
In 2015, following the Volkswagen emissions scandal and the signing of the first global climate agreement, European automakers accelerated their development of electric vehicles. Volkswagen pledged $90 billion to develop electric vehicles; Renault and Fiat each committed $10 billion to achieve this goal. The European automotive industry's commitment to electric vehicles is receiving additional support from the governments of Germany, France, the UK, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and Hungary, as these countries are eager to reduce vehicle emissions and ensure a greener future for the European automotive industry.
In late May, French President Emmanuel Macron announced an €8 billion plan to revitalize the French automotive industry and make France a leader in the European electric vehicle sector. The package includes €1 billion in subsidies to encourage the purchase of electric and hybrid vehicles and sets a target of producing one million environmentally friendly cars annually by 2025.
Meanwhile, the German government recently announced it will invest over €1.5 billion in battery research and production to drive the country's transition to clean energy and transportation. German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier stated that Germany has set a target of 7 to 10 million electric vehicles by 2030. This will also create business opportunities for foreign battery companies' subsidiaries in Germany. (Economic Information Daily)
