This includes both consumer doubts about new energy vehicles as a new phenomenon and the charging challenges inherent in new energy vehicles themselves. "The layout of charging stations can be said to be the biggest obstacle to the development of electric vehicles at present."
Ms. Li, who participated in the latest Beijing electric vehicle lottery with a "let's give it a try" attitude, unexpectedly won the lottery due to Beijing's sudden relaxation of electric vehicle purchase policies. However, this has made her even more conflicted, because her home, located outside the West Fourth Ring Road, is in an older residential area, and the property management company has clearly stated that charging stations cannot be installed. She now has to look for public parking lots around her community to see if she can find a place to refuel her vehicle. Even if she's lucky, it means that her beloved car will have to spend a significant amount of time outside, unable to park in front of her home.
If Ms. Li's participation in the Beijing car license plate lottery on October 26th proceeds as usual, the success rate for new energy vehicles will be around 28%, a further decrease from the previous round's 38%. Since the third lottery held in Beijing this June, the success rate for new energy vehicles has dropped from 100% to 80%. After that, for Beijing residents, buying a new energy vehicle is no longer a simple matter; obtaining a license plate also depends on luck. However, on October 26th, the rules changed again, and the success rate for new energy vehicles returned to 100%.
market
Sales at 4S stores have not increased significantly.
A reporter from Beijing Youth Daily recently visited several 4S stores selling new energy vehicles in Beijing and found that although the new policy has not immediately led to a surge in sales, the number of customers inquiring about the products has increased significantly in the past few days.
BAIC New Energy's sales reached 11,247 vehicles in the first three quarters of this year, accounting for over 25% of the market share, ranking first nationwide. According to BAIC New Energy staff, inquiries and purchases surged in the days following the temporary cancellation of the new energy vehicle lottery. "In the first two days after the new regulations were announced, we sold 120 vehicles, while the average weekly sales were only 200." For example, the BAIC EV160, with a post-subsidy price as low as just over 90,000 yuan, has received a very positive market response. The EV210, suitable for business use, is also quite competitive, priced at just over 240,000 yuan. According to 4S store staff, they will also launch China's first electric SUV next year to further meet the diverse needs of users.
Li Qi, assistant director of the marketing and communications department of Beijing New Energy Vehicle Marketing Co., Ltd., told reporters that there will be a lag in the market response to the new policy, as evidenced by the recent increase in in-store visits and phone inquiries. Sales are expected to catch up subsequently.
In the first three months of this year, JAC Motors sold 2,269 vehicles at the retail level and 2,800 vehicles at wholesale levels in Beijing, accounting for approximately 40% of JAC's total new energy vehicle sales. Lei Bing, Minister of New Energy Marketing at JAC Motors, also believes that Beijing's cancellation of the license plate lottery policy is a positive development, and he expects the number of orders to increase further in the short term. "Currently, the delivery period after placing an order in Beijing has reached 10 to 20 days, and it is estimated that the supply will be even more insufficient in the future."
BYD's expectations for the new policy are relatively cautious. An employee at a BYD 4S store stated that BYD's sales in Beijing in the first nine months of this year were less than 1,000 vehicles, accounting for less than one-tenth of BYD's total new energy vehicle sales. "Since only pure electric models can be sold in Beijing, and Beijing is not our main market, the cancellation of the license plate lottery will not have a significant impact." However, he also noted that the number of phone inquiries at the store has increased in recent days.
Influence
Citizens are worried that they will no longer have the opportunity to buy gasoline-powered cars.
The new policy of abolishing the lottery system for new energy vehicle license plates in Beijing has been met with widespread approval. "This is to implement the spirit of the State Council's executive meeting on September 29th and further promote the development of new energy vehicles. This round of demonstration application new energy passenger vehicle quotas will be directly allocated to all applicants who have passed the qualification review," the Beijing Municipal Passenger Vehicle Quota Management Office explained regarding this move.
On September 29th, the State Council executive meeting emphasized the need to support the development of new energy vehicles and small-displacement vehicles. According to the State Council meeting, local governments are prohibited from imposing restrictions on the purchase or use of new energy vehicles, and those already in place should be lifted. However, media reports have yet to provide a clear answer regarding whether Beijing's measures will become the norm.
In response, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, analyzed that Beijing's sudden relaxation of new energy vehicle quotas is likely a trial run. If the number of applications in the next few rounds does not increase significantly, or remains within a controllable range, Beijing can continue to implement the policy of not requiring a lottery.
In fact, some 4S store personnel believe that while the normalization of exemption from license plate lotteries would be a major boon to the future development of new energy vehicles, it may not necessarily lead to a surge in demand in the short term. "You can buy anytime, there's no need to rush to buy now!" an insider frankly stated. The current policy uncertainty has actually encouraged some people to seize the opportunity to buy now, because they are worried about future policy tightening.
However, during interviews, reporters also learned that many Beijing residents who have been unsuccessful in the lottery for gasoline-powered cars are still hesitant about switching to new energy vehicles. According to current policy, once someone successfully completes the lottery and purchases a new energy vehicle, they will never have the opportunity to buy a gasoline-powered car again. This is something that consumers who generally lack a comprehensive understanding of new energy vehicles definitely need to consider carefully.
focus on
The widespread adoption of new energy buses will influence household users' decisions.
In fact, behind the growing interest in various new energy vehicles among households, the government is also paying close attention to the application of new energy vehicles in public transportation systems. "The choice of private cars lies with each family, but the electrification of public transportation systems will have a more holistic effect, and its overall significance for energy and environmental protection may be more significant," said an industry insider. The popularization of new energy buses will, in turn, promote a comprehensive understanding of new energy vehicles among families, leading them to choose them. "On the other hand, the widespread adoption of public vehicles will also drive the development of related infrastructure, making the use of new energy private cars certainly more convenient."
Bai Weizhi, President of Volvo Buses China and General Manager of Shenwo Bus Co., Ltd., a joint venture between Volvo Buses and SAIC Motor, recently introduced at the "Towards Sustainable Cities" Leaders Forum held by Volvo in Beijing that the electric buses on Route 55 in Gothenburg, Sweden, can already operate without carrying as many batteries, enabling online and fast charging while in operation. In this way, the operating costs of new energy buses can be comparable to those of diesel buses. He firmly believes that new energy buses will become the mainstay of public transportation in the future, without the need for subsidies. He is also very optimistic about the Chinese market because of the strong government support.
In response, Li Zhongkui, director of the Integrated Transportation Research Center at the China Academy of Transportation Sciences, stated in an interview that the Ministry of Transport is currently promoting the application of new energy vehicles in urban areas, requiring that by 2020, 30% of any newly added or upgraded buses, taxis, and urban logistics delivery vehicles should be new energy vehicles. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this requirement has been raised to 35%, meaning that by 2020, these new energy vehicles will reach a scale of 300,000, including 200,000 buses and 100,000 taxis and urban delivery vehicles.
bottleneck
Advances in battery technology will solve the charging problem.
While the steady rise of new energy vehicles is a foregone conclusion, as Ms. Li encountered at the beginning of this article, charging infrastructure remains the biggest bottleneck for their development. "The availability of charging stations is arguably the biggest obstacle to the development of electric vehicles," a salesperson at an electric vehicle dealership told reporters. He explained that price and appearance are not so important to consumers eager to choose new energy vehicles; charging stations are crucial for whether a car can be driven freely. However, due to issues such as private parking spaces and voltage limitations in older residential areas, charging stations cannot yet be installed in every household, which deters potential new energy vehicle buyers to some extent.
However, Li Lili, chief engineer of the Grid Development Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, has his own perspective. In an interview, he acknowledged that charging infrastructure is currently a significant bottleneck, but he is optimistic about the future, stating, "In the future, we may not need so many charging stations!"
He believes that the unusual demand for charging stations for electric vehicles is actually due to their short driving range, meaning that the frequency and process of charging electric vehicles are significantly less advantageous compared to gasoline vehicles. "But if we look at it from a developmental perspective, in two to three years, the driving range of mainstream electric vehicles should be around 300 kilometers, at which point the dependence of electric vehicles on charging stations will be significantly reduced."
In his view, the pace of advancement in battery technology may be faster than people imagine. He cited an example: in 2012 and 2013, a kilowatt-hour battery cost approximately 4,000 yuan, while now it only costs 2,000 yuan. He predicts that by 2016 or 2017, a cost of 1,000 yuan per kilowatt-hour will be entirely achievable. He believes that once this bottleneck is overcome, electric vehicles will truly enter a period of rapid development.
In fact, many companies are currently researching ways to more conveniently solve the electric vehicle charging problem. Volvo, as mentioned earlier, has developed an online charging method. Zhang Kai, vice president of BAIC New Energy Vehicle Engineering Research Institute, told reporters that in addition to regular charging and fast charging, BAIC New Energy vehicles also have a battery swapping option, which can currently be completed in 2 to 5 minutes. This is also a viable solution.
