I. The resource value and environmental hazards of waste lithium batteries are gradually gaining attention.
The demand for and the amount of scrapped power lithium batteries are constantly increasing.
In 2015, my country's total lithium battery production was 47.13 GWh, of which power lithium battery production was 16.9 GWh, accounting for 36.07%; consumer lithium battery production was 23.69 GWh, accounting for 50.26%; and energy storage lithium battery production was 1.73 GWh, accounting for 3.67%.
Our calculations indicate that by 2020, the demand for power lithium batteries will reach 125 GWh, with 32.2 GWh (approximately 500,000 tons) being scrapped; by 2023, the scrapped volume will reach 101 GWh (approximately 1.16 million tons). This massive power lithium battery market will bring opportunities for lithium battery recycling and downstream reuse. Developing lithium battery recycling and reuse will not only prevent resource waste and environmental pollution but also generate considerable economic benefits and investment opportunities.
In the first half of 2016, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 177,000 and 170,000 units respectively, maintaining its position as the world's largest new energy vehicle market. Production and sales were low in January and February due to the Spring Festival and policy factors. With policy adjustments, new energy vehicle sales gradually recovered from March to June, reaching 35,000 units in June. In July and August of the second half of the year, new energy vehicle sales stabilized at around 30,000 units, awaiting further growth momentum.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production of new energy vehicles reached 21,303 units, and sales reached 18,054 units, representing year-on-year increases of 2.9 times and 3.5 times, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 13,121 units and 12,085 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 3.8 times and 6.1 times, while the production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 8,182 units and 5,969 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2 times and 1.6 times.
According to the relevant policies and regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the subsidy standards for pure electric passenger vehicles will be gradually reduced year by year after taking into account factors such as economies of scale and technological progress. In addition, after the government intensified its efforts to investigate subsidy fraud in the first half of 2016, relevant policies will be adjusted and modified accordingly.
The government will make improvements to the subsidy policy in many aspects, study and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism, adjust the product structure, and enhance the sophistication of subsidized products.
Increased government efforts to investigate subsidy fraud will help regulate industry development and boost companies' motivation for independent technology research and development and industrial upgrading; it will also help prevent excessive expansion of industry output and improve the policy and institutional environment for the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
The new energy vehicle industry is currently in a phase of rapid development and will continue to do so for the next 3-5 years. Policy transformation and industrial restructuring are essential steps towards a healthier and more complete industry development. With the continuous upgrading of electric vehicle technology and the increasing concentration of the industry, the sector will continue to experience rapid growth in the future.
By comprehensively considering factors such as changes in subsidies, the number of charging and swapping facilities, the price difference between oil and electricity, and the performance of electric products, we have established a forecast as shown in Figure 4:
The demand and scrap volume of power lithium batteries are not only closely related to the increased production of new energy vehicles, but also to the proportion of different vehicle models, the shift in battery technology routes, the lifespan of different power lithium batteries, and the scrapping age of different electric vehicle models. The current industry average standards are as follows, which can be used as assumptions for predicting the demand and scrap volume of power lithium batteries:
The average weights of different types of lithium-ion batteries are as follows: 275 kg for plug-in passenger vehicles, 235 kg for plug-in commercial vehicles, 550 kg for pure electric passenger vehicles, and 1900 kg for pure electric commercial vehicles.
According to statistics from the highway department, the average annual mileage of passenger cars and light vehicles is 50,000 km, medium-sized vehicles are 40,000 km, and heavy vehicles are 30,000 km. Under the same driving conditions, the lifespan of the power lithium battery of pure electric passenger vehicles is about 4-6 years. However, pure electric commercial vehicles have more daily driving frequency, longer driving distance, and more frequent charging, so the lifespan of their power lithium battery is about 2-3 years.
Currently, the average scrapping age of private passenger vehicles in my country is 12-15 years, while the mandatory scrapping age for commercial vehicles is 10 years. Electric vehicles require at least two replacements of their power lithium batteries during their lifespan. Moreover, due to uncertainties (accidents, human factors, etc.), the lifespan of power lithium batteries will continue to change.
According to our calculations, the amount of power lithium batteries scrapped in commercial vehicles (assuming a 3-year battery lifespan) and passenger vehicles (assuming a 5-year lifespan) will reach 27 GWh and 4.2 GWh respectively in 2020, and 84 GWh and 17.5 GWh respectively in 2023.
According to estimates, the market size created by recycling cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium, iron and aluminum from waste power lithium batteries will begin to explode in 2018, reaching 5.2 billion yuan, 13.6 billion yuan in 2020, and exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2023.
If the amount of scrapped batteries generated by the development of the new energy vehicle industry is not properly disposed of, it will cause significant environmental pollution. In addition, discarded lithium batteries have significant resource value. In the following section, we will analyze the technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness of lithium battery recycling.
Waste power lithium batteries have significant resource value, with cobalt and lithium having the highest potential value.
The materials that make up lithium batteries, such as the positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, and electrolyte, contain a large number of valuable metals. The composition of valuable metals varies in the positive electrode materials of different power lithium batteries, with cobalt, lithium, and nickel being among the metals with the highest potential value. For example, the average lithium content in ternary lithium batteries is 1.9%, nickel 12.1%, and cobalt 2.3%; in addition, copper and aluminum account for 13.3% and 12.7% respectively. If these can be properly recycled, they will become an important source of revenue generation and cost reduction.
Cobalt is a silvery-gray, lustrous metal with ductility and ferromagnetism. Due to its excellent high-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and magnetic properties, cobalt is widely used in aerospace, machinery manufacturing, electrical and electronic, chemical, and ceramic industries. It is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing high-temperature alloys, hard alloys, ceramic pigments, catalysts, and batteries.
Cobalt resources are mostly found in copper-cobalt, nickel-cobalt, arsenic-cobalt, and pyrite deposits; independent cobalt minerals are extremely rare, and terrestrial reserves are limited. Seafloor manganese nodules represent an important prospective resource for cobalt. Recycling cobalt is also a significant source of cobalt resources. According to USGS data, global cobalt ore production in 2015 was 123,800 metric tons of metal. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 63,000 metric tons, accounting for over 50%, while my country produced only 7,700 metric tons, representing 6.2%.
Cobalt mine expansion projects include: Etoile Leach SX-EWplant in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nova Nickel in Australia, and Idaho Cobalt and North Met Phase 1 in the United States, which added a total of 7,235 tons of production in 2016; fewer new projects were added in 2017, including NICO in Canada and Cobalt Converterslag in Zambia, which added a total of 2,215 tons of production; and new mines in Gladstone Nickel in Australia and Project Minier in the Democratic Republic of Congo came online in 2018, adding a total of 9,600 tons of production.
Cobalt production cuts include Glencore's Katanga and Mopani projects, and Brazil's Votorantim Metais mine, with an estimated reduction of 5,200 tons of metal. Given the continued low prices of copper and nickel, it is possible that other large mining companies will also join the production cuts.
Due to the rapid development of the power lithium battery market in the first half of 2016, which boosted demand for cobalt, and the expectation of production cuts by major mines, cobalt prices reached a turning point in mid-2016. It is projected that the supply will remain tight for the next two years. Globally, 42% of cobalt demand is concentrated in the lithium battery sector, followed by high-temperature alloys (16%) and hard alloys (10%). In my country, battery materials account for as much as 69%. With the downstream demand for new energy vehicles becoming clearer, domestic power lithium battery manufacturers expanded production in 2016-2017, further increasing the demand for cobalt. Therefore, recycling and reusing cobalt from waste batteries is becoming increasingly economical.
Lithium is widely used in power lithium batteries, and its applications are very extensive. Currently, the price of lithium carbonate in the market is constantly rising. The increasing demand, especially driven by new energy vehicles, and the difficulty in releasing production capacity on the supply side are both affecting the price of lithium carbonate, prompting more and more companies to pay attention to the economic benefits of lithium battery recycling.
Lithium resources are widely distributed in nature; however, the extraction process for lithium resources has high barriers to entry, resulting in a relatively stable supply and demand pattern. Key supply-side changes in recent years include: Galaxy Resources resuming production (MtCattlin mine); SQM establishing a joint venture to develop the 40,000-ton Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake project in Argentina; and ALB strengthening cooperation with a Chilean company, which is expected to establish three lithium salt plants in Chile by 2020, with a total LCE production capacity of 70,000 tons.
In 2015, lithium batteries accounted for more than 50% of total lithium demand. According to SQM's forecast, the compound annual growth rate of lithium demand from 2016 to 2025 will reach 8%-12%, of which the compound annual growth rate of lithium demand for power lithium batteries will reach 18%-24%. According to this forecast, global lithium demand will reach 490,000 tons (LCE) in 2025.
The unveiling of the Tesla Model 3 has also generated new demand for high-end lithium hydroxide. Tesla's goal is to achieve its established production targets of 500,000 vehicles per year and 35 GWh per year for its Gigafactory by 2020. Assuming 80% of these targets are met and the lithium carbonate consumption is 0.6 tons/kWh, the corresponding lithium demand would be 16,800 tons (LCE). This phenomenal event will also drive the development of the entire industry.
Looking at the sales volume of ternary cathode materials, the global market has seen a rapid increase, rising from 12,000 tons in 2009 to over 90,000 tons in 2015, with an average annual compound growth rate of 40%. Based on an analysis of future development trends for ternary cathode material companies, the production share of leading domestic companies is expected to remain at a high level, with the top ten companies projected to maintain a production share of over 80%.
In terms of ternary lithium-ion battery production, the output of power ternary lithium-ion batteries is expected to exceed 71,000 tons/year in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 56% from 2016 to 2018.
Lithium carbonate, as a direct product extracted from salt lakes and lithium mines, is the basic raw material for other lithium products. Lithium hydroxide is currently mainly used in the production of NCA ternary materials and high-nickel NCM ternary materials, and the demand for both is increasing along with the demand for ternary materials.
Because lithium hydroxide has high stability and does not produce carbon monoxide interference during the reaction, it helps to increase the tap density of the material, making it more suitable as a base lithium salt for the synthesis of ternary cathode materials compared to lithium carbonate.
Lithium hydroxide is an essential raw material for the synthesis of lithium-rich manganese-based cathode materials. The lithium-rich manganese-based cathode material xLi2MnO3•(1-x)LiMO2 has a high specific capacity (200~300mAh/g), which can well meet the requirements of lithium batteries in small electronic products and electric vehicles, and is the most promising next-generation power lithium battery cathode material.
In my country, lithium carbonate is primarily extracted from spodumene using methods such as the sulfuric acid process and limestone roasting, which are relatively expensive, costing approximately 22,000-32,000 yuan per ton. A small amount of lithium carbonate is extracted from salt lake brine. Given the high magnesium-to-lithium ratio and poor brine quality in my country's salt lakes, calcination and solvent extraction methods are used. These methods are less expensive than extraction from ore, but still higher than the cost of lithium extraction from salt lakes abroad, and production is very limited due to harsh production conditions.
Internationally, companies like Albermarle and SQM primarily use the evaporation-precipitation method to extract lithium carbonate at the Silver Peak Salt Lake in the United States and the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile. This method has the lowest cost, ranging from 12,000 to 19,000 yuan per ton, and is currently the mainstream method for lithium carbonate production.
The energy-saving rate of metal recycling is between 70% and 90%. If recycled raw materials are used to produce batteries, it has an absolute advantage in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction. Considering the economics of lithium battery recycling requires considering the entire life cycle of the battery. Battery raw materials are mainly non-ferrous metals, and there is a significant gap between the energy consumption level of my country's non-ferrous metal industry and international advanced levels. Energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the three major areas of mining, smelting, and processing. However, the energy consumption of non-ferrous metal recycling is far less than that of primary metal recycling.
Discarded lithium-ion batteries threaten the environment and human health, and affect sustainable social development.
The potential threats posed by spent lithium-ion batteries to the environment and human health. Current methods for disposing of spent batteries mainly include solidification and deep burial, storage in abandoned mines, and resource recycling. However, my country's capacity for battery resource recycling is currently limited, and most spent batteries are not effectively disposed of, posing a potential threat to the natural environment and human health.
Although power lithium batteries do not contain highly toxic heavy metals such as mercury, cadmium, and lead, they can still cause environmental pollution. For example, once their electrode materials enter the environment, metal ions from the positive electrode, carbon dust from the negative electrode, strong alkalis and heavy metal ions in the electrolyte can cause serious environmental pollution, including raising the pH value of the soil, and improper handling may result in the release of toxic gases.
In addition, the metals and electrolytes contained in power lithium batteries can harm human health. For example, cobalt may cause symptoms such as intestinal disorders, deafness, and myocardial ischemia.
The recycling of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) impacts the sustainable development of society and the economy. EVs offer advantages in mitigating environmental pollution and energy shortages; however, if EV batteries are not effectively recycled after their disposal, it will cause environmental pollution and resource waste, contradicting the original intention of developing EVs. For companies, the recycling of EV batteries presents a huge business opportunity, saving battery manufacturers raw material costs through recycling. Furthermore, the recycling of EV batteries is also related to the government's efforts to build a low-carbon economy and an environmentally friendly society.
II. Analysis of Power Lithium Battery Recycling Channels and Business Models
Currently, the recycling channels are mainly small workshops, but as the scale expands, they will inevitably become more standardized.
The lifecycle of a power lithium battery includes production, use, disposal, decomposition, and reuse. After disposal, the chemical activity of a power lithium battery decreases, but its internal chemical composition remains unchanged. Its charge/discharge performance no longer meets the power demands of vehicles, but it can still be used in applications with lower energy requirements than automobiles. Therefore, the cascade utilization of power lithium batteries has become one of the most discussed recycling methods in the industry. This involves using batteries from automobiles in energy storage, related power supply base stations, streetlights, and low-speed electric vehicles after they are phased out, before finally returning to the recycling system. However, this business model still faces the challenge of profitability, involving issues of distribution channels and technology.
As mentioned above, the recycling of power lithium batteries can be divided into two cycles: (1) cascade utilization: mainly for batteries whose capacity has decreased so that the battery can no longer enable electric vehicles to operate normally, but the battery itself is not scrapped and can still be used in other ways, such as for power storage; (2) dismantling and recycling: mainly for batteries whose capacity has been severely depleted so that the battery can no longer be used, and only by processing the battery into resources can valuable recyclable resources be recovered.
Currently, the recycling channels for power lithium batteries mainly rely on small recycling workshops, with few professional recycling companies and government recycling centers, indicating a need for system restructuring. At present, most used power lithium batteries in my country's recycling market flow into unqualified refurbishment workshops. These companies use outdated equipment and processes. However, if these batteries were handed over to legally registered and tax-paying companies that obtained the necessary qualifications and adhered to national standards, they would inevitably lose their price competitiveness. Therefore, further improving policies to ensure the sustainable development of the battery recycling industry is crucial.
Small recycling workshops: Their low recycling costs allow them to inflate prices, making high-price buybacks their biggest competitive advantage. However, after recycling, these workshops often simply repair and repackage the used lithium-ion batteries before re-entering the market, disrupting the normal order of the lithium-ion battery market. Furthermore, because these workshops lack the necessary qualifications, they pose safety hazards and environmental problems.
Professional recycling companies: These are state-approved companies specializing in the recycling and processing of used power lithium batteries. They possess strong overall capabilities, advanced technology and equipment, and standardized processes, maximizing the recovery of usable resources while minimizing environmental impact. Currently, companies in my country specializing in power lithium battery recycling include Shenzhen GEM, Bangpu Recycling Technology, Chaowei Group, and Fangyuan Environmental Protection. While the number of companies involved in lithium battery recycling is increasing, there is a lack of systematic government support and policy incentives.
Government Recycling Centers: These are national recycling centers established by local governments in accordance with relevant national laws. They facilitate the scientific and standardized management of the battery recycling market, improve the recycling network, rationally distribute the network and market, and increase the volume of recycling through formal channels. Currently, my country does not have government recycling centers for power lithium batteries, but this can be selectively developed in the future based on my country's specific circumstances.
In developed countries, the battery recycling industry is primarily market-driven, with government regulation playing a secondary role.
Germany: The government legislates on recycling, producers bear significant responsibility, and a fund is established to improve the market-oriented development of the recycling system.
The EU Waste Framework Directive (2008/98/EC) and the Battery Recycling Directive (2006/66/EC) form the legislative basis for German battery recycling regulations. These regulations require manufacturers, retailers, recyclers, and consumers throughout the battery supply chain to bear corresponding recycling responsibilities and obligations. For example, battery manufacturers must register with the government and assume significant recycling responsibilities; retailers must cooperate with battery manufacturers in their battery recycling efforts; and end consumers must return used batteries to designated recycling networks.
Furthermore, Germany has established a waste battery recycling system using funds and deposit mechanisms, achieving excellent results. This system is operated by the GRS Fund, jointly established by battery manufacturers and the Association of Electronics and Electrical Manufacturers, and is the largest lithium battery recycling organization in Europe. The organization began recycling industrial batteries in 2010 and will also include electric vehicle lithium batteries in its future recycling program, actively promoting the recycling and reuse of power lithium batteries.
In 2015, Bosch Group, BMW, and Wattengführer launched a collaborative project on the reuse of lithium-ion batteries. This project utilizes retired batteries from BMW ActiveE and i3 electric vehicles to build a large-scale photovoltaic power station energy storage system with a capacity of 2MW/2MWh. Wattengführer will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of this energy storage system. The project will be built in Berlin, Germany, and is expected to be operational by the end of 2015.
Japan: Production methods are gradually shifting to a "recycling" model, and the company is a pioneer in participating in battery recycling.
In 1994, Japanese battery manufacturers began implementing a battery recycling program. Based on the voluntary efforts of each participant, the program utilized the service networks of retailers, car dealerships, or gas stations to collect used batteries from consumers, with the recycling route being the opposite of the sales route.
Since 2000, the government has stipulated that manufacturers are responsible for the recycling of nickel-metal hydride and lithium batteries and that product design should be based on resource recycling. After the batteries are recycled, they are transported back to the battery manufacturing companies for processing, and the government provides corresponding subsidies to the manufacturing companies to increase their enthusiasm for recycling.
In addition, many Japanese companies are involved in battery recycling activities. Nissan and Sumitomo Corporation have partnered to establish 4REnergy, dedicated to the recycling of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles; Honda is researching technologies to extract recyclable precious metals from batteries and is collaborating with other metal manufacturers to promote resource recycling; Sanyo has developed a battery recycling roadmap and is actively engaged in the recycling and reuse of rechargeable batteries.
Major Japanese telecommunications companies have also jointly established the Lithium-ion Battery Self-Recycling Promotion Association, declaring their responsibility to promote the recycling of lithium-ion batteries and strive to significantly increase the recycling rate.
United States: Market regulation is the primary method, with the government regulating and managing the use of environmental protection standards to assist in the recycling of used lithium-ion batteries.
In the US market, the Rechargeable Battery Recycling Corporation of America (RBRC) and the Portable Rechargeable Battery Association (PRBA) have been established to continuously educate the public, raise public awareness of environmental protection, and guide the public to cooperate in the recycling of used batteries, thereby protecting the natural environment.
RBRC is a non-profit public service organization that primarily promotes the recycling of rechargeable batteries such as nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride, lithium-ion, and small sealed lead-acid batteries. PRBA is a non-profit battery association comprised of relevant battery companies, whose main goal is to develop recycling programs and measures to promote the recycling of industrial batteries.
RBRC provides three methods for collecting, transporting, and reusing used rechargeable batteries. These include (1) the retail recycling method; (2) the community recycling method; and (3) the corporate and public sector recycling method.
The Portable Rechargeable Battery Association (PBRC) mainly covers three aspects: (1) the relevant regulations of the U.S. Department of the Trade and Industry (DOT) on lithium batteries, lithium metal batteries and related regulations during transportation; (2) the recall of laptop batteries and mobile phone batteries by the CPSC; and (3) important laws and regulations on batteries.
In academia, the Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California, Davis, also conducted research on the secondary use and value analysis of power lithium batteries in 2010. The research included the specific requirements for battery performance in 4 to 5 battery secondary use areas, product development for home energy storage systems (HESA), and a methodology for evaluating the overall value of batteries (the sum of the value of electric vehicles and secondary use areas).
my country has explicitly adopted the extended producer responsibility system, and with the continuous improvement of policies, the industry is gradually moving towards standardization.
Current situation in my country: While the technology for recycling and processing power lithium batteries is relatively mature, management is relatively backward, hindering the development of the power lithium battery recycling industry. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
(1) The recycling network is inadequate. The recycling network is mainly composed of small and medium-sized recycling companies, making it difficult to achieve effective recycling.
(2) The recycling companies are small in scale and have incomplete technology, making it difficult to guarantee resource recycling efficiency;
(3) There are companies without operating licenses that are illegally engaged in the recycling of waste power lithium batteries, which poses safety and environmental risks.
As the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, the issue of recycling and utilizing electric vehicle power lithium batteries will become increasingly prominent. National and local governments have successively introduced policies to accelerate the process of building a healthy industrial ecosystem.
In July 2012, the "Development Plan for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry" clearly proposed to "formulate management measures for the recycling and utilization of power lithium batteries, establish a management system for the tiered utilization and recycling of power lithium batteries, guide power lithium battery manufacturers to strengthen the recycling and utilization of waste batteries, and encourage the development of specialized battery recycling companies."
In July 2014, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles," which proposed to study and formulate policies for the recycling and utilization of power lithium batteries, explore the use of funds, deposits, and mandatory recycling to promote the recycling of used power lithium batteries, and establish and improve a recycling system for used power lithium batteries.
In March 2015, the "Standard Conditions for the Automotive Power Battery Industry" stipulated that system companies should work with automobile manufacturers to study and formulate feasible methods for the recycling, processing, and reuse of used power batteries.
In January 2016, five ministries—the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine—jointly issued the "Technical Policy for the Recycling and Utilization of Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles (2015 Edition)," which clearly established a coding system for power lithium batteries and a traceability system. It explicitly adopted the extended producer responsibility system, stipulating that electric vehicle manufacturers bear significant responsibility for the recycling and utilization of used power batteries, power battery manufacturers bear significant responsibility for the recycling and utilization of used power batteries outside of their after-sales service systems, and manufacturers of cascade-use batteries bear significant responsibility for the recycling and utilization of cascade-use batteries. End-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling companies are responsible for recycling power batteries from end-of-life vehicles. Regarding incentives, the government will provide support to cascade-use and recycling companies in areas such as technology research and development and equipment imports within existing funding channels. Specifically, the government supports the research and development of technologies and equipment related to the recycling and utilization of power batteries.
In February 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" and the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Industry Standard Announcements for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles," clarifying the responsible entities for waste battery recycling and strengthening industry management and recycling supervision.
In February 2016, the draft of the "Technical Policy for the Prevention and Control of Waste Battery Pollution" was released for public comment. Key highlights related to lithium batteries in the new policy include: 1) The scope of waste batteries now includes emerging lithium batteries, solar cells, and fuel cell lithium batteries, and the attitude towards battery recycling plants has shifted from cautious and conservative to advocating and promoting them; 2) It clarifies that lithium battery recycling companies must possess a hazardous waste management license before operating, giving related environmental protection companies a greater advantage in terms of qualifications; 3) It encourages the development of reverse dismantling equipment for primary lithium batteries, power lithium batteries, and energy storage batteries, as well as new technologies such as equipment for the recycling of lithium battery separators, metal products, and electrode materials.
In addition to national policy encouragement and support, many local governments in my country are also actively exploring specific implementation methods for the recycling and reuse of power lithium batteries:
Shanghai: In 2014, Shanghai Municipality announced the "Interim Measures of Shanghai Municipality for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles," requiring automakers to recycle power lithium batteries, with the government providing a reward of 1,000 yuan per set. The government will subsidize automakers 1,000 yuan per set for recycling power lithium batteries.
Guangzhou: In November 2014, the General Office of Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued the "Interim Measures for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Guangzhou," which proposed to establish a recycling channel for vehicle power lithium batteries in the city and to recycle and process power lithium batteries in accordance with relevant requirements.
Beijing: On January 27, 2016, the "Forum on Future Development Trends of the Physical Automobile Market" with the theme of "Cooperative Innovation and Common Development" was held in Beijing. Xu Xinchao, Director of the New and Emerging Industries Division of the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, said at the forum that Beijing has implemented the "three no's policy" proposed by the central government regarding no restrictions on the use, purchase, or taxation of new energy vehicles; at the same time, the problem of recycling power lithium batteries in Beijing can be effectively solved through "three links". (1) Car companies are the primary responsible parties for the recycling of power lithium batteries. (2) Retired power lithium batteries can also be reused in a tiered manner. (3) Technological innovation has enabled the utilization rate of recycled batteries to reach 99%, and it is harmless to the environment.
Shenzhen: In 2015, Shenzhen issued the "Notice of Shenzhen Municipal People's Government on Issuing Several Policy Measures for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in Shenzhen". The notice required the formulation of policies for the recycling and utilization of power lithium batteries. The vehicle manufacturers were responsible for the mandatory recycling of power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles. The vehicle manufacturers were required to set aside 20 yuan per kilowatt-hour for the recycling and disposal of power lithium batteries. The local government would provide subsidies of no more than 50% of the audited amount of the set aside funds, and establish and improve the recycling system for waste power lithium batteries.
In September 2016, the Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Municipal Finance Commission, issued a notice regarding the "Shenzhen Municipal 2016 Fiscal Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles." Regarding the recycling of power lithium batteries, the "new regulations" require new energy vehicle manufacturers to be responsible for recycling and reuse. Companies that have set aside funds for power lithium battery recycling and disposal as required will receive a subsidy of 50% of the audited amount, with the subsidy funds specifically designated for power lithium battery recycling.
Business Model Comparison: Building a Producer Recycling System Based on Economic Incentives
Experience from developed countries in Europe and America shows that power lithium battery manufacturers bear significant responsibility for battery recycling when establishing recycling systems. When power lithium batteries are sold with electric vehicles to operators, corporate clients, or individual customers, the consumers own the power lithium batteries and are obligated to return them for disposal. In this model, the recycling network is built by power lithium battery manufacturers using the sales and service networks of electric vehicle manufacturers, and the electric vehicle manufacturers are responsible for cooperating in the recycling of the power lithium batteries used in their products.
Manufacturers wield the most control throughout the product's entire lifecycle, possessing diverse resources and being responsible for the product's design and architecture. In essence, manufacturers control all information about the product and determine its environmental impact.
The recycling process involves power lithium battery manufacturers utilizing the sales networks of electric vehicle manufacturers to collect used batteries via reverse logistics. Consumers return their discarded batteries to nearby electric vehicle sales and service outlets. Based on the cooperation agreement between the battery manufacturer and the electric vehicle manufacturer, the electric vehicle manufacturer transfers the batteries to the battery manufacturing company at an agreed price for professional recycling. The battery manufacturer can then reuse the recycled metal materials.
In addition, when recycling abandoned electric vehicles, scrap car dismantling companies must also sell the dismantled used power lithium batteries directly to power lithium battery manufacturers.
Regarding recycling methods, implementing a "trade-in" system encourages more consumers to return used batteries, ensuring a sufficient recycling volume of power lithium batteries. When consumers replace their batteries with new ones, the old batteries can be used to offset part of the price of the new battery. When recycling electric vehicles with power lithium batteries, scrap car dismantling companies should provide consumers with a certain amount of cash compensation before selling the used power lithium batteries to power lithium battery manufacturers.
The industry alliance model for recycling power lithium batteries refers to a system where power lithium battery manufacturers, electric vehicle manufacturers, or battery leasing companies within the industry jointly fund and establish a dedicated recycling organization responsible for the recycling of power lithium batteries. This approach can prevent problems such as insufficient battery quantity, limited funds, and limited recycling channels caused by the limited capabilities of individual battery manufacturers.
A key feature of this model is the establishment of a unified recycling organization within the industry, characterized by its strong influence, wide coverage, and independent operation; moreover, the extensive recycling network facilitates easy battery return by consumers. Revenue from recycling is used for the construction and operation of the recycling network.
Third-party recycling model: This model requires the independent construction of a recycling network and related logistics system. It is responsible for collecting used lithium-ion batteries produced in the aftermarket by the entrusted company, then transporting them back to a recycling and processing center for professional processing. After the electric vehicle is finally scrapped and enters the vehicle dismantling company, the dismantling company can sell the used lithium-ion batteries to a third-party company.
Establishing a recycling model requires significant investment in recycling equipment, networks, and human resources; cost is also a major influencing factor. Under the extended producer responsibility system, different recycling models for power lithium batteries are suitable for different types of companies.
Large-scale power lithium battery manufacturers have a wide variety of products and large production and sales volumes, and have strong technical and economic strength to recycle batteries themselves. Small and medium-sized companies, on the other hand, have fewer product types and smaller production and sales volumes. Recycling batteries themselves would require a large investment, which would affect the development of the company's core business. Therefore, they can choose to cooperate with other organizations for recycling.
In comparison, industry alliance recycling offers the best cost-effectiveness, but its feasibility is limited due to the need for collaboration among companies within the industry and the current lack of comprehensive legal regulations. In terms of overall cost, direct recycling by power lithium battery manufacturers is the lowest-cost option, while third-party recycling is the highest-cost.
III. Resource recovery technologies for spent lithium batteries: primarily wet recycling technology.
Overview of Lithium Battery Recycling Technology
The resource utilization technology of waste lithium batteries involves separating valuable components from waste lithium batteries based on their respective physical and chemical properties. Generally speaking, the entire recycling process is divided into four parts: (1) pretreatment; (2) electrode material repair; (3) leaching of valuable metals; and (4) chemical purification.
In the recycling process, lithium battery recycling technologies can be classified into three categories according to different extraction processes: (1) dry recycling technology; (2) wet recycling technology; and (3) biological recycling technology.
Dry recycling primarily includes mechanical sorting and high-temperature pyrolysis (or high-temperature metallurgical methods). Dry recycling processes are relatively short and lack specific targeting, representing a preliminary stage in metal separation and recovery. Mechanical sorting, on the other hand, refers to methods that directly recover materials or valuable metals without the use of solutions or other media. It primarily involves physical sorting and high-temperature pyrolysis, such as coarse screening of crushed batteries or high-temperature decomposition to remove organic matter for further element recovery.
Wet recycling technology is relatively complex, but it achieves high recovery rates for various valuable metals, making it an important technology for treating waste nickel-metal hydride and lithium batteries. Wet recycling technology uses various acidic and alkaline solutions as transfer media to transfer metal ions from electrode materials to the leachate. Then, through ion exchange, precipitation, adsorption, and other methods, the metal ions are extracted from the solution in the form of salts, oxides, etc.
Biological recycling technology, characterized by low cost, low pollution, and reusability, represents an ideal direction for the future development of lithium battery recycling technology. The key to biological recycling technology is the use of microbial leaching to convert the system's valuable components into soluble compounds and selectively dissolve them, yielding a solution containing effective metals. This achieves the separation of target components from impurity components, ultimately recovering valuable metals such as lithium. Currently, research on biological recycling technology is in its early stages, and future efforts will focus on resolving issues such as the cultivation of highly efficient microbial strains, the long cultivation cycles, and the control of leaching conditions.
From the perspective of the recycling process sequence, the first step is the pretreatment process, the purpose of which is to initially separate and recycle the valuable components of the old lithium batteries and efficiently and selectively enrich the high-value-added components such as electrode materials, so as to facilitate the smooth progress of the subsequent recycling process. The pretreatment process generally combines crushing, grinding, screening and physical separation methods. Several important pretreatment methods include: (1) pre-discharge; (2) mechanical separation; (3) heat treatment; (4) alkaline solution dissolution; (5) solvent dissolution; (6) manual disassembly, etc.
第二步：材料分离。预处理阶段富集得到了正极和负极的混合电极材料，为了从中分离回收Co、Li等有价金属，要对混合电极材料进行选择性提取。材料分离的过程也可以按照干法回收、湿法回收和生物回收的分类技术分为：(1)无机酸浸出;(2)生物浸出;(3)机械化学浸出。
第三步：化学纯化。其目的在于对浸出过程得到的溶液中的各种高附加值金属进行分离和提纯并回收。浸出液中含有Ni、Co、Mn、Fe、Li、Al和Cu等多种元素，其中Ni、Co、Mn、Li为重要回收的金属元素。通过调节pH将Al和Fe选择性沉淀出后，再对浸出液中的Ni、Co、Mn和Li等元素进行下一步的处理回收。常用的回收方法有化学沉淀法、盐析法、离子交换法、萃取法和电沉积法。
国内外公司动力锂电池回收的技术路线和趋势：湿法工艺和高温热解为主流
比较国外主流电池回收公司的废旧动力锂电池回收工艺可以发现，目前主流锂电池回收工艺以湿法工艺和高温热解为主，且很大一部分已经投入了工业生产阶段。
四、锂电回收经济性强，电池厂商自行拆解或第三方拆解模式是目前主流
从2015年以来，随着新能源汽车行业的爆发，以及电池材料的趋势性变化(向着高镍三元材料的方向发展)，钴、镍及碳酸锂/氢氧化锂的价格将受到一定幅度的提振。这使得回收废旧锂电池的经济性得到进一步重视。
我国私家车年平均行驶里程约为1.6万公里，保守估计私家车的使用条件下，纯电动/插电式汽车的动力锂电池组使用寿命为4~6年左右;而有关公交车、出租车等车型，由于其日均行驶里程长，充电较为频繁，其动力锂电池组的寿命为2~3年。
不同类型动力锂电池金属含量各不相同，根据我们对各类电动汽车占比以及单车锂电容量的预测，有关我国未来动力锂电池的报废量进行了预测。预计到2018年，我国新增报废的动力锂电池将达到11.8Gwh，对应可回收利用的金属为：镍1.8万吨、钴0.3万吨、锰1.12万吨、锂0.34万吨;预计到2023年，新增报废的动力锂电池将达到101Gwh，对应可回收利用的金属为：镍11.9万吨、钴2.3万吨、锰7.1万吨、锂2万吨。
我们预计，除金属钴外，其他几种金属价格在未来几年都将有不同程度的下降，据此推算，到2018年，可回收的有价金属的市场规模将达到镍14亿元、钴8.7亿元、锂26亿元;到2023年，可回收的有价金属的市场价值可以达到镍84亿元、钴73亿元、锰8.5亿元、锂146亿元。
通过建立经济性评估模型针对动力锂电池回收过程中投入成本和回收材料产出的收益，可以以以下数学模型进行表示：
Bpro=Ctotal-Cdepreciation-Cuse-Ctax
Bpro表示废旧动力锂电池回收的利润;Ctotal表示废旧动力锂电池回收的总收益;Cdepreciation表示废旧动力锂电池设备的折旧成本;Cuse表示废旧动力锂电池回收过程的使用成本;Ctax表示废旧动力锂电池回收公司的税收。
废旧动力锂电池回收和再资源化过程的使用成本重要包括以下几项(1)原材料成本;(2)辅助材料成本;(3)燃料动力成本;(4)设备维护成本;(5)环境处理成本;(6)人工成本。
从毛利率、可行性和可持续性三方面看，我们认为：电池厂商直接回收利用形成闭环的模式以及第三方专业拆解机构向电池厂商购买废旧电池的模式是目前主流的动力锂电回收模式，且在锂电综合回收的情况下具有较好的经济性。
假设：(1)目前的金属价格(钴21.5万元/吨、镍7.77万元/吨、锰1.1万元/吨、锂70万元/吨、铝1.26万元/吨、铁0.2万元/吨)且不考虑其他回收出现的收益;(2)考虑各类动力锂电池的使用占比(磷酸铁锂70%、锰酸锂7%、三元23%)综合回收锂电池;(3)除原材料之外其他成本相同
结论及分析：第三方专业机构从小作坊收购废旧锂电池并进行拆解加工的毛利率最高，达到60%;其次是行业联盟回收加工的形式，毛利率达到45%。但这两种方式中，前者(第三方：购于小作坊)存在安全和环保性问题，且目前小作坊尚未认识到锂电回收产业的巨大价值，收购价格较低，因此这种方式不具有可持续性;后者(行业联盟)目前由于相关管理条例和法律环境不完善，可行性仍然较低，但未来将是趋势之一。;其他三种方式可行性和可持续性都较好，但其中电池生产商直接回收利用和第三方专业拆解机构向生产商购买废旧电池的模式毛利率较高，因此我们认为这两种方式将构成目前主流的回收模式。
三元电池材料的回收价值较其他动力锂电池更高，如单独考虑回收三元动力锂电池的情况，则电池厂商回收利用模式和向电池厂商购买废旧电池的第三方拆解模式皆具备优质的投资价值(2016年测算到毛利率分别达到55%和48%)
我们认为，动力锂电回收产业将在未来5年内逐步实现规范化、规模化，行业联盟的回收模式有望在产业发展中后期形成，由于其规模效应，将拥有较高的毛利率。此外，原有的生产者回收利用模式和向生产者购买废旧电池的第三方拆解模式仍具备较强经济性。
