In the race to develop high-energy-density batteries, companies are vying for dominance. News of battery companies increasing R&D investment and improving cell and battery system energy density through modifications to positive and negative electrode materials, separators, electrolytes, and PACK structures is frequent. The leaps in battery energy density achieved by companies like CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, Tianjin Lishen, BYD, CALB, BAK Battery, and Sandon New Energy have repeatedly attracted industry attention.
The improvement in energy density is both a natural consequence of the pursuit of longer driving range in the development of new energy vehicles and closely related to the amount of government subsidies. In 2017, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was adjusted, with battery energy density becoming an important reference indicator for subsidies. On March 1st of this year, four central ministries issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of the Automotive Power Battery Industry," explicitly stating that improving battery specific energy is one of the key development goals for the future. In terms of product performance, the plan sets targets of achieving a specific energy of 260Wh/kg for power battery systems and reducing costs to below 1 yuan/Wh by 2020, and a specific energy of 500Wh/kg for individual power battery cells by 2025.
Furthermore, to enhance China's power battery R&D capabilities, foster collaborative R&D efforts among enterprises, and jointly promote technological progress in the industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) spearheaded the establishment of the National Power Battery Innovation Center last year, aiming for my country's power battery industry to catch up with the levels of Japan and South Korea by 2020. According to MIIT Minister Miao Wei, "Building manufacturing innovation centers is about bridging the gaps in the innovation chain, especially addressing the so-called 'valley of death' between laboratory products and industrialization, and bringing together scattered innovation resources and forces."
Thanks to a series of incentive measures, the energy density of power batteries has repeatedly broken records. Recently, Minister of Science and Technology Wan Gang stated at the 8th Clean Energy Ministerial Conference and the 2nd Mission Innovation Ministerial Conference that since the large-scale development of electric vehicles began in 2010, the energy density of electric vehicle batteries has roughly doubled every four years, while costs have decreased by about 50%.
China is making great strides at the forefront of improving energy density, with various battery technologies emerging and new ones appearing frequently in the news, such as graphene, lithium-air batteries, and supercapacitors.
The continuous pursuit of new energy density is not only breaking through the key constraint of the driving range of new energy vehicles, but also driving the technological advancement of the entire battery industry. However, in this competition, the simple pursuit of high energy density has also raised concerns within the industry—if higher energy density means more subsidies, will the pursuit of energy density lead to the neglect of other important indicators such as battery safety and lifespan?
Battery safety and lifespan are not new topics. Fires in new energy vehicles have been frequent in recent years, and the lifespan of power batteries in these vehicles is only 3-5 years. Meanwhile, under extreme conditions, the energy density of power batteries decreases non-linearly. These concerns, to some extent, discourage consumers from purchasing new energy vehicles.
A third-party survey once showed that over 90% of ordinary consumers travel less than 80 kilometers per day. So, should new energy vehicles, as a means of transportation, necessarily pursue high energy density? Furthermore, longer driving range also means higher prices. Considering overall cost-effectiveness and rationally choosing an appropriate driving range will become the mainstream approach.
Therefore, it is biased to use battery energy density as the only indicator. Other factors such as safety, lifespan, and economy are equally important, and these are the aspects that battery companies should focus on in future research and development.
Let's look at the expansion of power battery capacity. The momentum was strong in 2017, with companies investing in capacity expansion including BYD (6GWh), CATL (10GWh), Microvast (11GWh), Mengshi Technology (6GWh), Guoxuan High-Tech (4GWh), Sunwoda (6GWh), and Tianjin Xindongyuan (10GWh). According to incomplete statistics, from 2017 to the present, nearly 20 lithium battery companies have expanded their capacity, totaling over 64.2GWh.
This wave of capacity expansion is driven by two factors: firstly, companies are leveraging economies of scale to reduce production costs; and secondly, it is influenced by the government's guidance on battery production capacity thresholds. Although the 8GWh capacity threshold stipulated in the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017) (Draft for Comments)" issued at the end of 2016 has not yet been implemented, its guiding role for battery companies is self-evident.
Industry insiders believe that signs of battery overcapacity are beginning to emerge, but this overcapacity refers to low-end production capacity, while high-end production capacity is actually insufficient. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, there is still huge room for expansion for power battery companies.
The development of the battery industry should balance speed and quality. Expansion in speed and scale should be based on the actual needs of industry development, a rational assessment of the market, and innovative development in materials technology, rather than blindly following trends. At the same time, it should be recognized that as the energy storage market gains momentum, batteries will also have a significant opportunity to play a role in this field, and there is no significant technical difficulty in converting power batteries into energy storage batteries.
For most battery companies, the most important thing right now is to focus on the market, demand, and technology to ensure high-quality batteries, appropriate scale, and innovation-driven development, thereby creating irreplaceable market competitiveness.
