Power lithium-ion batteries are a type of high-energy-density battery that uses lithium-ion batteries as its material. They are specifically designed to power motor vehicles and are also commonly used in power tools, electric toys, and other fields. They offer advantages such as zero pollution, zero emissions, high energy density, small size, and long cycle life, and represent the trend in the development and application of power batteries both domestically and internationally.
The downstream of the lithium battery industry chain includes low-end markets such as mobile phones, laptops, digital cameras, power tools, and mining lamps; mid-range markets such as wind power and solar energy storage; and high-end markets such as electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, electric mobility scooters, electric wheelchairs, electric cars, and electric buses. It also has significant applications in specialized aerospace fields, including tanks, special equipment, rockets, and lunar rovers. The downstream of the power lithium battery industry chain mainly consists of applications requiring high power, such as electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, electric cars, and electric buses.
The "2015-2020 China Power Lithium Battery Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" released by the Industry Research Institute believes that two factors are favorable to the development of the lithium battery industry: (1) With the rapid development of downstream demand industries for lithium batteries in my country, especially the rapid growth of consumer electronics products such as mobile phones, computers, and other digital products, the demand for lithium batteries will maintain rapid growth in the future; (2) National lithium battery industry policies support the development of the lithium battery industry. Furthermore, from the perspective of industry development, the following trends are observed:
1. The market share of polymer lithium batteries is gradually expanding.
Currently, there are gaps in the application of mobile networks and terminal products, with mobile phones generally suffering from interoperability issues and insufficient battery power. Polymer lithium batteries, developed from traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries, can precisely address these shortcomings in performance. First, due to their aluminum-plastic composite film soft packaging, they are less prone to explosion compared to traditional lithium batteries with hard-shell packaging such as aluminum casings, offering higher safety. Second, polymer lithium batteries are lighter, thinner, and have larger capacities. Because of these advantages, the market share of polymer lithium-ion batteries has been continuously expanding in recent years and is expected to capture an even larger share in the coming years.
2. Electric vehicles are a key future demand area for lithium batteries.
An analysis of investment trends in new energy by major domestic and international manufacturers reveals that many automakers and traditional battery producers have turned their attention to the research and development and production of lithium batteries. With further improvements in domestic and international lithium battery production technologies and processes, once product quality and price are properly balanced, lithium batteries will undoubtedly expand their market share due to their advantages such as portability, safety, and long lifespan.
According to statistics from the Industry Research Institute, the annual production of new energy vehicles reached 78,500 units, and sales reached 74,800 units, representing year-on-year increases of 3.5 times and 3.2 times respectively. Among these, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 2.4 times and 2.1 times respectively year-on-year; while the production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles increased by 8.1 times and 8.8 times respectively year-on-year. Based on a 20% penetration rate for lithium-ion batteries in the power battery market, the market size is approximately 15,000 sets. Assuming an average price of 50,000 yuan per set of power lithium-ion batteries, the total market value is approximately 748 million yuan.
3. The industry will gradually shift from coastal areas to inland areas.
As competition intensifies, the trend of relocation and integration in my country's lithium battery industry is becoming increasingly apparent. The trend of labor-intensive segments shifting in a gradient is accelerating, with the upstream lithium mining sector showing a clear resource advantage in the central and western regions. The Pearl River Delta region is home to a large number of lithium battery manufacturing companies, and as labor costs gradually decrease in inland areas, labor-intensive segments such as cell assembly will gradually shift from coastal areas to inland regions. Looking at the upstream of the industry chain, lithium carbonate, a crucial raw material for lithium batteries, mainly comes from ores and brine. China's lithium ores are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan, while brine is concentrated in Qinghai and Tibet. Central and western cities with resource advantages, such as Yichun and Xinyu in Jiangxi, Aba in Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet, are beginning to increase their investment in the lithium battery industry.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of future downstream industry developments, the impact of relevant national industrial policies, and historical data on the lithium battery market size, the Industry Research Institute used polynomial fitting to predict the market size of China's lithium battery industry from 2015 to 2020. The lithium battery market is projected to reach approximately 230 billion yuan by 2017 and approximately 600 billion yuan by 2020.
