On April 23, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3200 points. A total of 68 stocks hit their daily limit down, more than the 41 stocks that hit their daily limit up, indicating increased risk. Short-term investors are showing strong risk aversion. With the index having risen over 30% this year, funds are wary of high valuations and will prioritize risk over returns; therefore, caution is advised in investment decisions.
On the market, the hog farming concept continued its strong performance from yesterday, leading the gains. Shanghai local stocks saw consecutive intraday fluctuations, with Shanghai Industrial Development hitting the daily limit early on, Huamao Logistics reaching the daily limit near the midday close, Shibei High-Tech and Shanghai Maling also hitting the daily limit, and Bright Real Estate rising 7%.
Other sectors were all in the red. The recently hot hydrogen energy sector saw the largest declines, with Lifan Industry, Houpu Industry, and Kailong Industry all hitting their daily limit down. While hydrogen energy, as the ultimate clean energy source, is undergoing a normal short-term correction, the rally is far from over.
Looking back at the history of the A-share market, where does 3200 points stand? As Guo Guangchang of Fosun Group said, when the stock market was at 6000 points, we were greedy when we should have been conservative; when the stock market is at 3200 points, we are fearful when we should have been greedy. The real show has only just begun!
Let's continue our discussion about hydrogen energy today.
At the end of last year, Li Bo went to Japan for an inspection. This year, hydrogen energy was included in the Government Work Report for the first time. Undoubtedly, this will be a historic turning point in the energy history of China and even the world.
Japan has always been a staunch supporter and practitioner of hydrogen energy. While electric vehicles are booming, Japan remains unmoved and continues to focus on developing hydrogen energy. The most direct driving force behind this is that Japan has a dense population but scarce resources. Oil is too expensive and Japan is subject to external control. If the cost problem can be solved, hydrogen energy will undoubtedly be a widely available and ultimate clean energy source, greatly alleviating Japan's dilemma of dense population and scarce resources.
Although China is a vast country with abundant resources, it is also densely populated, and its natural resources will eventually be exhausted. Hydrogen energy, which is clean, pollution-free, recyclable, and widely available (although challenges such as hydrogen production through water electrolysis remain to be solved), is the best choice!
Looking back at the world's energy history, from steam to gasoline to diesel engines, from special applications to civilian and commercial use, each has brought profound changes to the world and affected every aspect of everyone's life.
The most cutting-edge technologies often originate from specialized fields. Because of the disregard for cost, fuel cells were first used in 1965, installed on the Gemini 5 spacecraft.
Now, fuel cells are finally ready to be put into use and embark on their commercial and civilian journey. Undoubtedly, this signifies the start of another energy revolution.
Great changes breed great opportunities, and the future of fuel cells is bound to be extremely exciting. Hydrogen energy will be the ultimate clean energy source in the future.
In the commercial field, fuel cells actually have a ready-made comparable object, namely lithium batteries. In terms of the advantages and disadvantages of the two, fuel cells clearly have higher potential. In the future, fuel cells will at least be able to rival lithium batteries, and will most likely surpass them.
Today, I will mainly use historical investment opportunities in lithium batteries to deduce future investment opportunities in fuel cells.
The "Interim Measures for the Management of Fiscal Subsidies for the Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles," jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology in February 2009, stipulates that vehicles included in the "Recommended Models Catalog for the Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles" will enjoy fiscal subsidies according to the standards.
In January 2009, the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" project was jointly launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The main content was to provide financial subsidies and plan to develop 10 cities each year for about three years, with each city launching 1,000 new energy vehicles for demonstration operation. This involved public transportation, taxis, government vehicles, municipal vehicles, and postal services in these large and medium-sized cities, striving to make the scale of new energy vehicle operation in the country account for 10% of the automobile market share by 2012.
Thus began the electric vehicle boom, with BYD shining as the brightest star. On January 2, 2009, BYD (Hong Kong stock) opened at HK$11.30, marking the start of a spectacular surge. By October 23, 2009, it had reached a high of HK$87.16, representing a 671% increase. If calculated from the 2008 low of HK$4.76, this surge amounted to a 1731% increase – not just a prediction, but a historical fact!
This is the history of BYD shares listed in Hong Kong. A similar legend exists in the A-share market: Yutong Bus. After adjusting for stock splits and dividends, the share price on December 31, 2008, was -1.17 yuan. This means that if you held the stock for the next ten years, considering only cash dividends, you would not only have recovered your initial investment but also earned a net profit of 1.17 yuan per share. This does not even include the absolute increase in share price or the return on investment from reinvested dividends. From the beginning of 2009 to its historical high in November 2017, the absolute increase in share price exceeded 10 times.
The common ground between the two is that they are both companies that manufacture new energy buses, one a leading private enterprise and the other a leading state-owned enterprise. They are also the two leading companies in the bus sector that benefit most from the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" program.
Now, the government is about to vigorously promote fuel cells. Today, Huang Libin, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in the next step, we will further increase our efforts, work with relevant departments to carry out demonstration operations, solve the problems of industrialization and commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and vigorously promote the innovative development of my country's hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry.
The most crucial part here is the phrase "jointly with relevant departments to carry out demonstration operation," which I interpret as: a "ten cities, one thousand vehicles" project for fuel cell panels is about to be launched.
Similar to the logic of electric vehicles, the first applications will be buses and special-purpose vehicles (logistics vehicles, etc.). Currently, in the field of fuel cell buses and special-purpose vehicles in China, the market share of buses is the largest, and the main products are logistics vehicles and buses. Among them, special-purpose vehicles such as logistics vehicles are more prominent. The second largest market share belongs to Foshan Feichi Automobile (Meijin Energy), whose prominent products are buses.
In addition, the Zhengzhou Municipal Party Committee recently led a delegation to visit Toyota Tsusho Corporation in Japan to discuss accelerating cooperation and exchanges with Zhengzhou's automobile enterprises on fuel cell system support. Yutong Bus, a leading local electric bus manufacturer, is worth paying attention to, and Yaxing Bus, which, like Zhongtong Bus, is under the Shandong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, is performing exceptionally well in the market.
Only by riding the wave of a major trend can one make big money. How many times in a lifetime can one encounter such a historic opportunity? Please cherish it!
