Power batteries are a focus of attention whether used in automobiles or energy storage; however, their primary application is in automobiles. This article will introduce the development trend of the power battery industry from three aspects.
First, the development background of power batteries
Currently, internationally, hybrid electric vehicles have been industrialized, plug-in electric vehicles are in the promotion stage, and fuel cell vehicles are in the demonstration stage. However, by 2020, plug-in and pure electric vehicles will develop rapidly, and by 2030, fuel cell vehicles will see a significant increase.
China's new energy vehicle industry has formed a relatively complete R&D and industrial system, and has developed a series of products that are already being sold on a large scale in the market. Globally, China's new energy vehicle sales account for over 50% of the total market share. The country has made excellent plans for the future development of new energy vehicles. The "Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" released in 2017 stated that by 2020, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles would reach 2 million units, and by 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales should account for more than 20% of total automobile production and sales.
Furthermore, the total number of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million by 2020. Judging from the current development trend, achieving this goal should not be a major problem. Against this backdrop, both domestic and international research directions and content related to the key component of new energy vehicles—the power battery—have been well planned. For example, some major developed countries internationally, especially automotive powerhouses like Japan, the United States, Germany, and South Korea, have all made detailed research and development plans for power batteries for new energy vehicles, covering aspects such as materials, battery system integration, standards systems, new battery systems, and next-generation batteries.
Second, the current status and trends of power battery technology development.
Currently, there are high demands on batteries, with the aim of competing with gasoline-powered vehicles. For example, battery energy density, power density, safety, cycle life, fast charging, operating temperature range, and cost should all meet expectations. However, achieving all of these goals is difficult; we can only partially meet the requirements through collective effort.
Lithium-ion battery technology is a hot research topic, with safety remaining a crucial aspect in both materials and battery system integration. However, significant improvements have been made in the energy density, power density, lifespan, and cost control of lithium-ion batteries, making them a viable upgrade and replacement for lead-acid batteries. Previously, thanks to the support of three national five-year plans, the technology of power batteries has advanced rapidly.
In fact, the technological advancement of power batteries is closely related to the country's overall strategic direction. With pure electric drive as the primary focus, lithium-ion batteries should be developed towards higher energy efficiency, and the entire battery material system should gradually undergo transformation. Currently, the country has made some arrangements in the field of solid-state batteries, and universities and research institutions have conducted extensive research and achieved significant progress.
Driven by national subsidy policies, the industrialization of power batteries in my country has progressed rapidly. Subsidies are primarily based on battery energy density; the energy density of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has now reached 150 Wh/kg, qualifying for a 1.2% subsidy. Through subsidies, the energy density of LFP batteries has been increased, and it is projected to reach 160 Wh/kg or even 170 Wh/kg in 2018, and 180 Wh/kg by 2019.
The energy density of ternary lithium batteries is approximately 120-250 Wh/kg. 120 Wh/kg is sufficient for use in fast-charging buses; in passenger vehicles, the target is to increase or decrease by 20 Wh/kg from 230 Wh/kg. Improving energy density, especially with subsidies, will drive advancements in battery technology and indirectly contribute to advancements in vehicle technology.
Third, the current status and trends of the power battery industry.
Currently, power batteries are mainly concentrated in East Asia. Globally, Japan's technology is relatively advanced, but China's battery technology has also made great progress. I believe that in the next three to five years, China's battery technology will become number one in the world.
According to statistics, my country now has more than 200 companies producing power batteries, making it the world's largest producer of power batteries. From an industry investment perspective, investment in power batteries is also extremely active.
Currently, the hardware investment per unit watt-hour is showing a rapid downward trend, with my country's cost around 30-40 cents per watt-hour. Further increases in overall production capacity could lead to a significant decrease. In terms of overall hardware investment, it's possible to reduce the cost to around 10 cents per watt-hour. However, domestic investment remains primarily high, with companies currently investing 3-5 billion yuan. From the perspective of the power battery industry chain, China has formed the world's most complete industrial chain, mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Central Plains regions. For example, Taizhou has many companies engaged in the industrialization of power batteries, creating a relatively small regional advantage.
Finally, the application of power batteries is mainly concentrated in four major areas.
The first category is Class A vehicles, which are microcars that are primarily pure electric; the second category is Class B vehicles that are primarily plug-in hybrids; the third category is commercial vehicles that are primarily pure electric, and in the bus sector, it is best to focus on fast charging; the fourth category is vehicles with 40V hybrid, mild hybrid, or semi-hybrid powertrains.
For power batteries, the four main application areas are: low-speed electric vehicles, which are a major application area for power batteries, with my country already producing millions of vehicles annually. In addition, we should pay attention to two other aspects: technology and industry. Technologically, safety should be the primary focus, and a balance must be struck between energy density, power density, safe cycle life, and cost. We need to adopt automated equipment to improve the consistency of battery production and enhance the development and industrialization of batteries by improving battery system design.
From a national perspective, it's crucial to regulate the battery industry at the industrial level to enhance the production capacity of high-quality power batteries and promote coordinated development across the entire industry chain. For companies, it's essential to consider both subsidized and non-subsidized scenarios to plan and prepare responses for battery technology and industrial development in advance.
