This includes the initial cost of the car, the cost of gasoline, the cost of electricity, and the cost of replacing the electric vehicle's battery. Batteries typically have a rated range of 100,000 miles and an 8-year lifespan, while the lifespan of a car is usually twice that. Subsequently, the owner will likely purchase a replacement battery during the vehicle's lifespan, and these replacement batteries are very expensive.
According to NREL, the cost per mile varies depending on the vehicle category.
Readers may have seen reports claiming that electric vehicles are less expensive than gasoline vehicles; however, these are often based on "studies" that "forget" include the cost of battery replacement. Professional economists at the EIA and NREL are encouraged to avoid personal bias, as it reduces accuracy. Their job is to predict what will happen, not what they want to happen.
Replaceable batteries reduce the cost of electric vehicles in the following ways:
Most cars travel less than 45 miles per day. Then, on many days, they can use a low-cost, low-range battery (e.g., 100 miles) and charge it overnight. For longer trips, they can use a more expensive, longer-range battery, or swap the battery more frequently.
Current electric vehicle owners may replace their batteries after a 20% to 35% capacity drop. However, replaceable batteries can last much longer because they can be offered as lower-capacity batteries as they age. Drivers won't see the difference between a new 150 kWh battery and a 300 kWh battery that has degraded by 50%. Both will appear as 150 kWh in the system. When battery life is doubled, battery costs are doubled.
Fast charging stations face the risk of losses.
When you see a fast-charging station, what percentage of its usage time is it? In many cases, not much. This is due to the inconvenience and high cost of charging, the ease of charging at home, and the insufficient number of electric vehicles. Low utilization often results in station costs exceeding station revenue. When this happens, stations may use government or investment funds to cover the losses; however, these "remedies" are unsustainable. Station costs are high due to the high cost of fast-charging equipment and the high cost of electricity services. For example, it takes 150 kW of grid power to charge a 50 kWh battery in 20 minutes (150 kW × [20 ÷ 60]). This is the same amount of electricity consumed by 120 households, and the grid equipment supporting this is very expensive (the average US household consumes 1.2 kW).
For this reason, many fast-charging stations cannot connect to a large portion of the power grid, meaning they cannot fast-charge multiple vehicles simultaneously. This leads to a cascading effect: slower charging speeds, lower customer satisfaction, reduced station utilization, higher costs per customer, reduced station profits, and ultimately, fewer people wanting to own the stations.
A city with many electric vehicles and primarily roadside parking is more likely to make fast charging more economical. Alternatively, fast charging stations in rural or suburban areas often face the risk of operating at a loss.
Replaceable batteries reduce the economic viability risk of fast charging stations for the following reasons:
Batteries in underground swapping rooms can charge more slowly, thus reducing the required service power and lowering the cost of charging equipment.
• Batteries in the exchange room can obtain power at night or when renewable energy sources are saturated and electricity costs are low.
Rare earth materials face the risk of becoming rarer and more expensive.
By 2021, approximately 7 million electric vehicles had been produced globally. If production were to increase 12-fold and operate for 18 years, electric vehicles could replace 1.5 billion gasoline-powered vehicles globally and decarbonize transportation (7 million x 18 years x 12). However, electric vehicles typically use rare materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and it remains unclear what will happen to the prices of these materials if consumption increases dramatically.
Electric vehicle battery prices typically decline year by year. However, this did not happen in 2022 due to material shortages. Unfortunately, rare earth materials may become increasingly scarce, leading to higher battery prices.
Replaceable batteries reduce reliance on rare earth materials because they can more easily work with low-range technologies that use fewer rare earth materials (e.g., LFP batteries do not use cobalt).
Waiting for charging can be inconvenient at times.
Replaceable batteries reduce refueling time because replacement is quick.
Drivers sometimes feel anxious about range and charging.
If the system has many exchange chambers and many spare batteries, then the exchange will be easy.
Burning natural gas to generate electricity will emit CO2.
Electric power grids are typically powered by multiple sources. For example, at any given time, a city might have 20% of its electricity from nuclear power, 3% from solar power, 7% from wind power, and 70% from natural gas power plants. Solar power plants generate electricity when there is plenty of sunlight, wind power plants generate electricity when there is wind, while other sources tend to be less intermittent.
When one person charges an electric vehicle, at least one power source on the grid increases its output. Typically, only one person participates due to various considerations, such as cost. Furthermore, the output of a solar farm is unlikely to change because it is powered by the sun, and its electricity is usually already consumed. Alternatively, if a solar farm is "saturated" (i.e., discarding green electricity due to having too much), it can increase its output instead of discarding it. People can charge EVs without emitting CO2 at the source.
Replaceable batteries can reduce CO2 emissions from power generation because they can be recharged when renewable energy sources are saturated.
The mining of rare earth materials and the manufacture of batteries emit CO2.
Replaceable batteries can reduce CO2 emissions in battery production because smaller batteries that use fewer rare earth materials can be used.
Transportation is a $30 trillion problem
There are approximately 1.5 billion gasoline-powered vehicles globally. Replacing them with electric vehicles, at a cost of $20,000 per vehicle, would amount to a total cost of $30 trillion ($1.5 billion x $20,000). For example, if an additional 10% reduction is achieved through hundreds of billions of dollars in R&D, then the R&D cost would be justified. We need to treat transportation as a $30 trillion problem and act accordingly—in other words, more R&D. However, how can R&D reduce the cost of swappable batteries? We can start by exploring machines that can automatically install underground infrastructure.
in conclusion
To advance the development of swappable batteries, governments or foundations can fund the development of the following standardized systems:
Electromechanical interchangeable electric vehicle battery system
• Communication system between EV battery and charging mechanism
• Communication system between vehicles and battery swapping stations
• Communication system between the power grid and the vehicle display panel
• Smartphone user interface and payment system interface
• Different sizes of exchange, storage, and charging mechanisms
Developing a complete system to the prototype stage can cost tens of millions of dollars; however, global deployment can cost billions of dollars.
