In recent years, the development of new energy vehicles has been booming. Taking 2021 as an example, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles showed rapid growth, supporting the overall growth of automobile sales against the trend in 2021. In March 2022, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in my country reached 28.2%, exceeding the national target of 20% market penetration rate for all new energy vehicle models by 2025.
A review of the government's subsidy policies for new energy vehicle (NEV) companies reveals that the booming NEV market is heavily reliant on government subsidies. Since 2019, government subsidies for NEVs have been gradually reduced. For example, in 2022, the subsidy standard for NEVs was reduced by 30% compared to 2021, and vehicles registered after December 31, 2022, were no longer eligible for subsidies. With the adjustment of government subsidy policies, the NEV market is shifting from policy-driven to market-driven. In this transition, reducing overall vehicle costs and overcoming key technological hurdles have become paramount for NEV companies and component suppliers. The "three-electric" system (battery, motor, and electronic control system) is a crucial component of NEVs, accounting for half of the total cost, with nearly 80% of that cost coming from the power battery. Component manufacturers of electric motors, batteries, and electronic controls face pressure from both price reductions by vehicle manufacturers and rising raw material costs and reliance on imported core components. Under this dual pressure, electric motor, battery, and electronic control companies must find ways to develop and achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
Development Trends and Technology Roadmap of Power Batteries
From the perspective of battery development trends, future technological advancements will mainly focus on high-performance battery materials, battery packs, battery management systems, battery cascade utilization and recycling technologies, and battery manufacturing. First, the power battery industry will develop towards large-scale and intelligent production, with comprehensive improvements in product quality. Second, the power battery recycling industry will enter a period of explosive growth, and breakthroughs in battery cascade utilization and recycling technologies are urgently needed. Third, charging and swapping models are showing a diversified development trend. Due to the rapid development of charging and swapping infrastructure networks, the participation of multiple social capital entities has led to a diversified development pattern in the charging and swapping market. In the future, "Internet + charging" technology will be widely promoted and applied, charging and swapping models will become more diversified, and the development of convenient charging and swapping in downstream application markets will remain the main trend. For electric vehicles to gain an advantage over traditional vehicles without relying on subsidies, two basic conditions need to be met in terms of batteries: the battery energy density must be as high as possible, and the battery cost must be as low as possible.
Development trend of drive motor system
From the perspective of electric motor development trends, permanent magnet motors are widely used in passenger vehicles due to their high efficiency, high power density, and small size, occupying a major share of the domestic electric motor market. Given my country's advantages in rare earth resources, permanent magnet motors will remain a key focus for electric vehicle motor development in the future. However, in terms of continuous power ratio of motor controllers, there is a significant gap compared to international advanced levels. Utilizing silicon carbide to increase the power density of motor controllers will be one of the mainstream trends in motor controller technology development. Currently, IGBT chips and modules, core components for energy conversion and transmission in electronic control systems, mainly rely on imports. The high-end market is dominated by foreign companies such as Infineon and Mitsubishi. While companies like BYD and CRRC Times Electric have shared the remaining IGBT market, they still lag significantly behind foreign brands in technology. In the future, stimulated by downstream markets, the domestic IGBT industry is expected to accelerate its expansion and develop rapidly.
Development of integrated electric drive systems
In the application of new energy technologies, the integrated electric drive assembly, which deeply integrates the drive motor, motor controller, and reducer, is a major technological direction in the new energy vehicle field. Currently, foreign electric drive system integrators such as Bosch, Continental, Magna, GKN, BorgWarner, and ZF have launched integrated electric drive assembly products. my country started at roughly the same time as its foreign counterparts; for example, Shanghai Electric Drive, Jingjin Electric, Juyi, and Huichuan have all launched three-in-one electric drive assembly systems. The advantages of integration are significant. It not only reduces system size and weight, improves the convenience of vehicle layout, and increases interior space, but also potentially reduces energy loss between systems, significantly improving overall efficiency. Furthermore, the elimination of housings and connectors will significantly reduce system costs and prices. In addition, powertrain integration facilitates modular standard supply, shortening R&D and matching cycles. Of course, integration also has some drawbacks. For example, upfront R&D and matching costs will increase; the challenges in achieving high NVH, reliability, and heat dissipation performance will increase, requiring higher R&D capabilities; and standardized supply also means limited customization space, requiring automakers to make more compromises. However, overall, the advantages of integrated electric drive systems outweigh the disadvantages, and it has become a trend in the development of new energy vehicle technology.
The integration of electronic control systems tends towards multi-functional modules, typically integrating transformers, on-board chargers, heaters, and power split modules, and may even include VCU (Vehicle Control Unit) and MCU (Microcontroller Unit). Domestic companies such as BAIC New Energy, Changan New Energy, and CRRC Times Electric have developed various forms of multi-functional assemblies. Among them, the pure electric multi-functional powertrain system represented by BAIC EMD (E-Motion Drive) 3.0 has already been installed in the EU5 series models. With a large number of new car manufacturers entering the market, the demand for third-party new energy vehicle electronic control system integrators is strong, driving them to transform from simple electronic control system product suppliers to powertrain solution providers for new energy vehicle OEMs. This has created a new growth point for specialized third-party electronic control system integrators in China's new energy vehicle electronic control system industry, and is promoting the mainstream trend of third-party electronic control system supply in China's new energy vehicle industry.
Conclusion
In March 2022, the China EV100 Forum was successfully held, where government representatives, industry experts, and scholars discussed the overall market development direction. The forum's main theme was that the development of new energy vehicles is not only an improvement and replacement of traditional vehicle power, but also a complete disruption of traditional vehicles. The development of new power also brings about advancements in vehicle intelligence and connectivity, and these development directions will be the core competitive points in the next stage of the new energy vehicle market.
