First, an overview of anode materials.
The main function of anode materials is to store lithium during the charging process of lithium batteries. There are four main indicators for evaluating the performance of anode materials: low lithium insertion/extraction voltage, high specific capacity, good rate capability, and good cycle performance.
The materials that meet these requirements mainly fall into the following categories, which are currently the mainstays of anode materials:
Among these materials, graphite offers the best cost-performance ratio, making it the current mainstream choice. It is further divided into two categories: natural graphite and synthetic graphite. Natural graphite is widely used in consumer electronics, while synthetic graphite is more commonly used in power batteries.
Silicon-based materials are a future development direction because they outperform graphite in achieving high energy density. Graphite's theoretical energy density is 372 mAh/g, while silicon-based anodes can reach 10 times that level. Elon Musk mentioned this direction at this year's Tesla Battery Day.
Second, the industrial chain structure of anode materials
The industry chain of the negative electrode is shown in the figure below:
Among them, the demand from new energy vehicles is the main driver, which determines the amount of anode material used.
my country has now become the world's largest supplier of anode materials, surpassing Japan and South Korea, and this advantage will continue to expand in the future.
The current competitive landscape in the industry is dominated by four major players and several smaller ones. The four major players are BTR, Zichen (Putailai), Shanshan, and Kaijin. Among A-share listed companies, only Putailai and Shanshan are listed.
Currently, the mainstream material in the market is artificial graphite anode, with a market penetration rate as high as 78.50% in 2019. The leading company in this field is Jiangxi Zichen (Putailai). However, BTR's natural graphite has a greater advantage.
The evolving competitive landscape of anode materials remains closely tied to battery cell manufacturers. Having a strong partner can significantly boost your success. Below is a list of the major players that various anode material companies have partnered with:
Putailai and BTR have the best gross profit margins in the industry, especially Putailai, which dominated the market a few years ago. However, with the rise of competitors, its gross profit per ton has been declining.
Gross profit per ton (RMB 10,000/ton) for major anode material companies
Third, future development potential
In 2019, the shipment volume of lithium battery anode materials in China reached 265,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38%. Among them, due to the increased application of high-rate and fast-charging products, the shipment volume of artificial graphite increased rapidly, reaching 208,000 tons in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 56.3%; its share accounted for 78.5% of the total anode material shipment volume, an increase of 9.2 percentage points compared with 2018.
Future demand currently comes mainly from power batteries, while consumer electronics and energy storage are likely to continue to drive growth.
In 2020, the global demand for anode materials for power batteries was approximately 280,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 22%. By 2025, the domestic demand for power batteries alone will reach 310 GWh, and the corresponding demand for anode materials will reach 260,000 tons.
Fourth, the relevant targets
Currently, only two A-share listed companies, Putailai and Shanshan, produce anode materials. Putailai's business is more streamlined, and its gross profit margin is relatively high. Therefore, Putailai is the company to focus on in the anode material sector. I will conduct a more in-depth analysis of Putailai later if I have time.
In addition, BTR, one of the leading anode material companies hidden in the New Third Board, also has a promising future.
