As the world shifts to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change, quantifying future demand for key battery materials is crucial. In a new report, Chengjian Xu, Bernhard Steubing, and a research team from Leiden University in the Netherlands and Argonne National Laboratory in the US demonstrate that demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese oxide-based batteries will increase between 2020 and 2050 due to multiple factors. Consequently, the supply chain demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel will expand significantly, potentially requiring the exploration of more resources. However, the uncertainty is substantial relative to the growth of the electric vehicle fleet and the battery capacity per vehicle. Closed-loop recycling plays a secondary but increasingly important role in reducing raw material demand until 2050, and researchers must investigate advanced recycling strategies to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. This work is now published in *Nature Communications Materials*.
The development of electric vehicles
Electric vehicles (EVs) have a smaller climate impact compared to vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines. This advantage has led to a surge in demand, with the global fleet growing from a few thousand vessels a decade ago to 7.5 million in 2019. However, the global average car market remains limited, and future growth is expected to dwarf past absolute increases. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are currently the mainstream technology for EVs. A typical automotive LIB contains lithium, cobalt, and nickel in the cathode, graphite in the anode, and aluminum and copper among other components. Battery technology is currently evolving towards new and improved chemistry. In this work, Xu et al. investigated the global material requirements for batteries in lightweight electric vehicles, from lithium, nickel, and cobalt to graphite and silicon, and linked material requirements to sustainable production capacity and known reserves to discuss key factors for improving batteries. This work will assist in the transition to electric vehicles by providing insights into future battery material requirements and the key factors driving these requirements.
Global electric vehicle inventory development forecast to 2050. Pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, STEP scheme, national policy scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios.
Electric vehicle (EV) fleet growth
The team projected the growth of the electric vehicle fleet up to 2030 based on two scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA). These included the Established Policy (STEP) scenario, which relates to existing government policies, and the Sustainable Development (SD) scenario, which aligns with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, aiming for electric vehicles to account for 30% of global sales by 2030. In this analysis, Xu et al. extended these scenarios to 2050. To meet the STEP scenario, approximately 6 TWh of battery capacity per year would be needed by 2050. Material requirements will depend on the choice of battery chemistry, with three battery chemistry currently under consideration.
The most likely scenario will follow the current trends of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) and lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) batteries (hereinafter referred to as NCX, where X represents aluminum or manganese). This will lead to advancements in battery chemistry by 2030. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP), as a cathode material for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to see increasing use in future electric vehicles. Although its lower specific energy affects the fuel economy and driving range of electric vehicles, LFPs have advantages such as low production cost, good thermal stability, and long lifespan. While LFP batteries are currently widely used in commercial vehicles such as buses, they also show great promise for widespread application in light electric vehicles, including Teslas.
In the STEP scheme, battery market share and annual sales volume of electric vehicle batteries before 2050 are presented. (a) NCX scenario. (b) LFP scenario. (c) Li-S/air scenario. The numbers in LFP lithium iron phosphate battery, NCM lithium nickel cobalt manganese battery, NCM111, NCM523, NCM622, NCM811, and NCM955 represent the ratio of nickel, cobalt, and manganese. NCA lithium nickel cobalt aluminum battery, graphite (Si) graphite anode containing partial silicon, lithium sulfur lithium battery, lithium air battery, TWh 109kWh.
Battery material demand and recycling potential
Subsequently, scientists assessed global demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, noting that the growth in lithium demand is only slightly affected by specific battery chemistry, while the specific battery chemistry of nickel and cobalt has a greater impact on demand. From 2020 to 2050, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is projected to increase further. In this way, they predict that the cumulative demand for lithium from 2020 to 2050 will be between 7.3 million tons and 18.3 million tons, the cumulative demand for cobalt will be between 3.5 million tons and 16.8 million tons, and the cumulative demand for nickel will be between 1.81 million tons and 8.89 million tons.
Xu et al. then demonstrated the changes in materials over time in spent batteries and discussed how recycling these materials could help reduce the production of primary materials. Existing commercial recycling methods for electric vehicle batteries include dry and wet processes. Pyrometallurgical recycling involves melting the entire battery or pre-treated battery components. Hydrometallurgical recycling is based on acid leaching followed by solvent extraction and precipitation to recover battery materials. In closed-loop recycling, hydrometallurgical processing can follow pyrometallurgical treatment to convert alloys into metal salts. Direct recycling aims to recover cathode materials while preserving their chemical structure for economic and environmental advantages, but this method is still in its early stages of development.
In NCX, LFP, and Li-S/air battery solutions, the flow of lithium, nickel, and cobalt battery materials from 2020 to 2050. (a) Raw material demand. (b) Waste battery materials. STEP scenarios – established policy scenario, sustainability scenario, and million-ton-scale sustainability scenario.
Electric Vehicle Outlook
In this way, Xu Chengjian, Bernhard Stebin, and their colleagues developed models to demonstrate how lithium, nickel, and cobalt battery production capacity will grow significantly, as the demand growth rate for electric vehicles may exceed the current production rate even before 2025. Battery materials can be supplied within existing production capacity, but supply must be increased to meet demand from other sectors. The outlined supply risks may change with the discovery of new reserves. Demand for battery capacity will depend on technological factors such as vehicle design, weight, and fuel efficiency, as well as fleet size and consumer choices regarding the size and range of electric vehicles.
Direct recycling is the most economical and environmentally friendly closed-loop process because it allows for the recovery of cathode materials without smelting and leaching. A successful transition to electric vehicles will depend on a continuous supply of materials to keep pace with the industry's growth. Scientific sustainability assessments, including life-cycle assessments of chemical substances, will guide the selection of alternative battery chemicals and raw materials. The projected global demand from this work also provides a platform for monitoring the global economic, environmental, and social impacts of electric vehicles and their batteries.
