The reality is that solid-state batteries still face three insurmountable hurdles before becoming a mainstream product: deep technical pitfalls, key challenges in mass production implementation, and a chaotic, in-depth competition within the industry.
01. Mass production of solid-state batteries is not easy.
Solid-state batteries are considered the "ultimate form" of lithium-ion battery technology, with a theoretical energy density exceeding 500 Wh/kg. Furthermore, by replacing flammable liquid electrolytes with solid-state electrolytes, the risk of thermal runaway can be fundamentally addressed. However, the path from laboratory breakthroughs to mass production is far more arduous than the "mass production next year" narrative touted by the market.
While the current global planned production capacity for solid-state batteries exceeds 565.7 GWh, the actual installed capacity is only 28.3 GWh. Furthermore, the data on installed vehicles reveals deeper contradictions in the industrialization process.
The divergence in technological approaches directly determines the difficulty of mass production. Sulfide systems, with their near-liquid electrolyte ionic conductivity, are considered the optimal solution, attracting giants like Toyota, Nissan, and Samsung. However, the inherent toxicity of sulfide electrolytes—the formation of hydrogen sulfide upon contact with air—forces production lines to operate in nitrogen-sealed environments, driving investment costs per line to billions of yuan. While Toyota claims to begin mass production testing in 2027-2028, its current process still requires a three-year optimization period, and the lithium sulfide precursor process is not yet mature. This results in sulfide-based battery cell costs exceeding 1.5 yuan/Wh, far surpassing the 0.5-0.6 yuan/Wh cost of liquid batteries.
While oxide systems appear to circumvent air sensitivity issues, and products from domestic companies like Qingtao Energy and Ganfeng Lithium have already been installed in vehicles, the interface contact problem caused by the brittleness of the materials remains unresolved. To alleviate this problem, companies have had to add a "flexible interface layer," but this increases process complexity and cost, resulting in the cost of oxide system cells remaining in the range of 0.8-1.0 yuan/Wh, offering no significant advantage over liquid batteries.
Polymer systems have largely exited the automotive market due to insufficient ionic conductivity at room temperature (requiring heating to above 60°C to function). The Bluecar electric vehicle, previously launched by the French company Bolloré, was forced to withdraw from the mainstream market due to its significantly reduced range in winter. Currently, polymer batteries are only finding a niche in specific scenarios such as grid energy storage, accounting for less than 5% of global installed capacity.
The "solid-solid interface" contact challenge in all-solid-state batteries has become a major obstacle to large-scale production. The ability of the electrolyte to automatically wet the electrodes in liquid batteries is lost in solid-state systems, hindering lithium-ion transport. To solve this problem, companies have had to develop dry electrode processes and isostatic pressing technology, but this has reduced production line yields to below 70%. Minmetals Securities' calculations show that even using an oxide/polymer system, the long-term cost of all-solid-state cells needs to be 0.69 yuan/Wh to be economically viable, while the current cost of sulfide systems is still more than twice that target.
Semi-solid-state batteries, as a transitional solution, also face an awkward positioning. They improve interface contact by adding 10%-15% liquid electrolyte, but at the cost of limited energy density improvement (only 10%-20% higher than liquid batteries) and a cost increase of over 30%. While the 150kWh semi-solid-state battery pack in the NIO ET7 claims a range of over 1000 kilometers, the actual number of vehicles equipped with it is less than a thousand, far below the company's expectations.
More importantly, through system-level safety design (such as the inverted cell layout of CATL's Kirin batteries) and improvements in electrolyte additives, liquid batteries have reduced the probability of thermal runaway to the level of one in a trillion, significantly weakening the safety premium of semi-solid batteries.
From an industry perspective, mass production timelines are being continuously postponed. Hyundai Motor of South Korea originally planned to build a fully solid-state test line by 2025, but due to challenges in electrode coating uniformity, mass production has been delayed until 2030. QuantumScape of the United States claims to deliver 24-layer solid-state battery samples by 2025, but its current capacity is only at the MWh level, and it will take several years of equipment debugging to reach the GWh level. CATL has publicly admitted that its fully solid-state batteries are still in the "A-sample stage," and process finalization will not be possible until at least 2026.
In this long-distance race of technology, the gap between the fervor of the capital market and the reality of engineering may be longer than the migration path of lithium ions in solid electrolytes.
02. Who Benefits Most from Industry Chaos?
With the dawn of breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, the global supply chain is caught in a high-stakes race. Japan, China, and the West are employing drastically different tactics, with the Chinese camp showing a clear advantage.
The Japanese camp holds core patents in the sulfide-based energy transfer process, but progress has been slow. Toyota holds over 60% of the global patents for sulfide electrolytes, and its lithium sulfide pilot line, jointly built with Idemitsu Kosan, has achieved 99.9% purity, reducing the cost of sulfide electrolytes from 500,000 yuan/ton to 300,000 yuan/ton. Toyota's all-solid-state battery, originally planned for mass production in 2027, has been delayed to 2030 due to solid-solid interface contact challenges, with initial production capacity only sufficient for equipping 100,000 high-end vehicles. This "technology closed loop + high-end positioning" strategy, while mitigating early market risks, may miss the window of opportunity for large-scale cost reduction.
The Chinese camp, on the other hand, is disrupting the industry's pace with a rapid growth model of "modifying production lines and seizing market share." CATL transformed its liquid battery production line into a semi-solid battery production line at its Liyang base, and achieved product rollout in just 9 months. Its 350Wh/kg condensed matter battery has already secured an order from Zhiji Auto.
The Western camp, well-versed in the rules of the capital game, uses "laboratory data + automaker endorsement" to tell a story. QuantumScape, through Volkswagen Group's investment, packaged its 24-layer solid-state battery sample test data as a "disruptive breakthrough," causing its stock price to surge 15 times in two years. However, its 0.2GWh pilot production line had a yield rate of only 65%, far from the 90% mass production threshold. Solid Power relies even more on BMW's order commitments, deploying dry electrode equipment in its Colorado factory, but the cost of a single line is as high as $800 million, three times that of CATL's similar production line. This "PPT mass production" model is facing severe challenges during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle: QuantumScape's stock price has fallen 80% from its peak, and Solid Power's cash flow is only enough to sustain it until 2026.
In this chaotic battle, the midstream and upstream industrial chains are becoming the beneficiaries of certainty.
In terms of equipment, Lead Intelligent Equipment focuses on the forefront of industry technology, continuously tackles difficulties and makes breakthroughs in innovation. It has now achieved a major breakthrough in the core process of all-solid-state battery manufacturing and launched an all-solid-state complete line solution to fully promote the mass production process of all-solid-state batteries. Mannster has provided testing and verification experiments for dry process for many domestic and foreign companies, and its core new dry process equipment, such as mixing, twin-screw fiberization, and multi-roller film forming, has won orders.
The materials sector is characterized by a pattern of "leading companies securing their positions + emerging players breaking through": Ronbay Technology has secured a partnership with CATL for all-solid-state battery R&D through its integrated cathode and electrolyte supply; Tinci Materials has successfully broken through the liquid-phase synthesis process for lithium sulfide, achieving low-cost, large-scale manufacturing. Meanwhile, Sanxiang New Materials' zirconium-based solid-state electrolyte has achieved import substitution, directly driving the growth in demand for zirconium metal.
The ultimate winners of this technological revolution may not be the end-user battery manufacturers, but rather the "shovel sellers" hidden within the supply chain.
