China has pledged to the world that by 2020, non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and that greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40%-45% compared to 2005. What role will wind power play in achieving these goals?
In terms of installed capacity
Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Administration, has a clear understanding of the situation: based on the calculation that renewable energy accounts for 20 million kilowatts of installed capacity as a percentage, reaching 15% would require approximately 300 million kilowatts. Of this, hydropower is planned to account for a maximum of 7.5%-8%, nuclear power has a target of 70 million kilowatts, and the remaining burden will primarily fall on wind power. Since wind energy is utilized for an average of 2,000 hours per year, at least 150-200 million kilowatts of wind power capacity are needed to achieve this target.
According to statistics, by the end of 2009, China's cumulative installed wind power capacity reached 25.8053 million kilowatts, and there is still nearly 10 times the growth potential by 2020.
From the perspective of on-grid electricity prices for wind power and traditional energy
Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters: "From a dynamic perspective, the cost of coal-fired power is rising year by year, almost by 2 cents per year. Currently, the average on-grid price of coal-fired power exceeds 0.35 yuan/kWh, and it is almost certain that it will rise to 0.55 yuan/kWh in 10 years. By 2020, even if the cost of wind power does not decrease, the on-grid price of wind power and conventional power will be basically the same, except that subsidies to the grid are required."
Zhao Kui, deputy secretary-general of the Ulanqab Wind Energy Association in Inner Mongolia, believes that "if we consider the comprehensive social costs of environmental pollution and governance for various power generation methods, the current grid connection price of wind power at 0.51-0.61 yuan/kWh is not high at all." This can be seen from the grid connection prices of traditional energy sources in developed countries such as Europe after imposing ecological taxes and carbon taxes.
From the perspective of wind farm investment costs
Regarding initial investment costs, the current investment cost (cost per kilowatt) for wind farms in China is approximately 8,000 yuan/kW, while that for thermal power is 3,500-4,000 yuan/kW. This price does not include the investment in coal desulfurization technology. Wind turbine costs account for 70%-75% of the total cost of a wind farm investment. The price per kilowatt of wind turbines has been declining steadily since 2007 (early 2007: 6,700 yuan/kW; 2008: around 6,300 yuan/kW on average; end of 2009: 5,000 yuan/kW), and the intervals between price decreases are getting shorter, with a drop of about 100 yuan/kW per month. Considering factors such as technological advancements, increased unit capacity, and current profit margins for wind turbine equipment manufacturers, there is still significant room for price reductions.
Regarding the cost per kilowatt-hour (CPM) (the cost of generating each kilowatt-hour of electricity over its lifetime), McKinsey predicts that by 2020, wind power, coal power, and nuclear power will have the most competitive CPM. If a carbon tax is levied at that time, the cost of wind power and nuclear power will be significantly lower than that of coal power.
Judging from the water consumption of various power generation methods, we can see that wind power has an absolute advantage, consuming only 0.3 cubic meters of water per megawatt-hour of electricity generated on average.
Finally, from the perspective of the carbon emission reduction effect of wind power
By 2020, carbon emissions from power generation without utilizing wind power will be 4,150 megaton-equivalent, while if the national wind power planning targets are met, carbon emissions will drop to 3,800-3,900 megaton-equivalent.
In addition, Li Junfeng told reporters, "The advantage of wind power generation is that once a wind farm is built, there is no need to consider buying coal anymore, nor to worry about issues such as rising coal prices, bad weather, and insufficient transportation capacity." Saying it's a one-time solution is a bit of an exaggeration, but a one-time solution for 20 years is basically achievable.
