Technology is the driving force behind automotive development. The deep integration of internet, semiconductor, and software algorithm companies with automotive enterprises has spurred new changes and trends in automotive and auto parts technologies. So, how will these new automotive parts technologies develop in the future, and where will they lead the automotive industry?
1. Engine power enhancement through a "combination punch": two-stage turbocharging technology
In recent years, small-displacement engines have been widely favored by automakers. Turbocharging technology has made outstanding contributions to improving the power and optimizing fuel economy of small-displacement engines, gradually becoming a technological trend. With increasingly stringent environmental standards and emission regulations, as well as continuous improvements in engine technology, combining multiple turbocharging technologies to enhance engine performance has become one of the future trends in engine technology.
Currently, two-stage supercharging has become a hot topic in the field of supercharging technology, including two-stage turbocharging (consisting of two exhaust gas turbochargers, one large and one small) and supercharging + turbocharging. These technologies can significantly improve the engine's power output and low-speed torque, solve the problem of insufficient engine power at low speeds, and greatly help improve engine performance.
It is understood that foreign vehicle manufacturers and related component suppliers have widely adopted and researched two-stage turbocharging technology, achieving a high level of technological maturity. Volkswagen was the first to apply a twin-charged engine system, employing both turbocharging and supercharging, to mass-produced models; Infiniti's new 3.0L V6 twin-turbocharged engine, the "VR30," has officially entered production; BorgWarner continues to advance its two-stage turbocharging technology (R2S); and Honeywell has launched its latest two-stage turbocharging system using two VNT turbochargers of different sizes. However, there are few domestic turbocharger manufacturers with advanced technology. Hunan Tianyan invested 4.15 million yuan in 2015 to research a two-stage turbocharger project, and one project has currently passed customer performance testing. Overall, domestic companies are not at a high level in two-stage turbocharging technology and face significant challenges.
2. A new "catcher" for emissions upgrades in direct injection engines: Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF)
Gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines are increasingly used in passenger cars due to their superior power and fuel economy. However, because GDI engines inject fuel directly into the cylinder, uneven fuel-air mixing and fuel wetting of the cylinder walls significantly increase the quality and quantity of particulate matter emissions.
Increasingly stringent regulations require direct-injection gasoline engines to maintain stable and low PM emissions across a wider range of operating conditions. Euro VI emission regulations impose stricter limits on particulate matter emissions, lowering the PM limit to 4.5 mg/km. The recently released "Limits and Measurement Methods for Pollutant Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles (China Stage VI)" also tightens PM limits, with the first stage at 4.5 mg/km and the second stage at 3 mg/km. Despite continuous advancements in GDI engine technology, in-engine purification alone is insufficient to meet the upgraded emission regulations. Therefore, the Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) is considered the most effective and reliable potential technology for addressing the particulate matter emission limits for GDI gasoline engines.
The latest revised draft of the "Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries" has changed "diesel particulate filter" to "particulate filter," aiming to encourage foreign investment in GPF (Gas-Powered Particulate Filter) in addition to diesel particulate filters. Foreign auto parts companies such as Faurecia and BASF are researching GPF technology and have already applied it in the market. The Volkswagen Group announced that it will gradually roll out GPF across all gasoline engines by June 2017. In fact, many companies have formulated GPF strategies, but have not officially announced a full-line deployment. Domestic companies are also pursuing the GPF route; companies like Weifu and Guizhou Research Institute possess this technology, but there is a significant gap compared to foreign technologies. With the gradual advancement of emission regulations, GPF is expected to become standard equipment in the future.
3. The Future of New Energy Vehicle Drive Technology: In-Wheel Motor Technology
New energy vehicles differ significantly from traditional vehicles in their drive system, primarily relying on electric motors, including permanent magnet synchronous motors, wheel-side motors, and in-wheel motors. Among these, in-wheel motor technology is considered the future of new energy drive technology and has broad development prospects.
The biggest feature of in-wheel motor technology is that it integrates the power, transmission, and braking systems into the wheel, simplifying the mechanical components of electric vehicles. Globally, Japanese, American, German, and French automakers are all involved, while domestic Chinese automakers have only recently begun experimenting with in-wheel motor technology, and are still in the testing phase.
In recent years, the application of wheel hub motor drive technology abroad has mainly manifested in two aspects: one is the integrated electric system developed by R&D teams represented by tire manufacturers or auto parts manufacturers; the other is electric vehicles jointly developed by vehicle manufacturers and wheel hub motor drive system manufacturers.
Domestic auto parts companies are optimistic about the development of hub motor technology. Asia Pacific Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. has acquired a stake in the European hub motor technology company ELAPHE and established a joint venture in China. It is expected to achieve small-batch matching in 2017 and mass production in 2018. Tianjin Tianhai Synchronizer Group acquired 100% equity of the Dutch company e-Traction and established Hubei Tait Electromechanical Co., Ltd. in Jingmen, Hubei Province, with plans to put hub motors into production in 2017.
With the continued development of new energy vehicles and the continuous promotion by enterprises, the era of industrialization of hub motor technology will soon arrive.
4. A cost-effective solution for emission upgrades: 48V mild hybrid system
Mild hybrid systems are a low-cost and effective energy-saving technology for automobiles. Currently, most vehicles use 12V powertrain systems, which achieve energy savings and emission reductions through start-stop functionality and regenerative braking; however, their power output limits their energy-saving effectiveness. A 48V system can be considered an enhanced version of the 12V system, providing support for an increasing number of electrical systems throughout the vehicle and more effectively utilizing start-stop functionality, thereby reducing fuel consumption.
Therefore, with increasingly stringent fuel consumption and emission standards, replacing the current 12V systems in automobiles with 48V systems is an inevitable trend. Furthermore, judging from the plans announced by major OEMs and component manufacturers, 2017 will see a small-scale mass production of 48V mild hybrid systems.
In 2016, JAC launched the new Refine M4 equipped with a 48V mild hybrid system. Valeo's e4Boost 48V power system will be mass-produced and launched in China in early 2017. Bosch launched its second-generation 48V mild hybrid system and stated that the 48V mild hybrid system under development will be put into mass production in 2017.
Furthermore, various component manufacturers are vying for a foothold in the key 48V technologies. Schaeffler's 48V start-stop system project has already achieved mass production, and its current 48V products also include a 48V electric turbocharger and a 48V electric drive axle. Valeo's 48V ViBSG starter-generator and 48V electric supercharger, as core components of its 48V system, are also attracting significant attention from OEMs.
5. A more precise "eye" for intelligent driving: 77GHz radar
With the development of intelligent driving and autonomous driving, the fusion application of multiple sensors is an inevitable trend in the future. Millimeter-wave radar has the characteristics of stable detection performance, is not easily affected by the shape and color of the object surface, and has good environmental adaptability. Therefore, it will become the main sensor in the future.
Research firm Plunkeet Research predicts that there will be nearly 70 million automotive millimeter-wave radars worldwide by 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 24% from 2015 to 2020. The main frequency bands for automotive millimeter-wave radars are 24GHz and 77GHz, with 77GHz currently considered the mainstream direction for the future. However, 77GHz radar is highly difficult to develop, and currently only foreign auto parts giants such as Continental, Bosch, TRW, Hella, and Delphi possess this technology.
Domestic companies lag significantly behind foreign counterparts in millimeter-wave radar technology, but companies such as Huayu Automotive, Xiamen Yixing, Sifang Electronics, Guorui Technology, Nalei Technology, and Beijing Xingyidao have made breakthroughs. Beijing Xingyidao's 77GHz long-range collision avoidance radar has already been installed in domestically branded autonomous vehicles, and Shenyang Chengtian Technology Co., Ltd. has also achieved breakthroughs in the development of 77GHz automotive millimeter-wave radar. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology commissioned the Vehicle Information Service Industry Application Alliance to conduct research and testing on 77-81GHz millimeter-wave radar radio frequency technology.
Currently, 24GHz millimeter-wave radar remains the mainstream, but the next three years will see 77GHz millimeter-wave radar fully replace it. 2016 was a pivotal year for millimeter-wave radar, with various companies strategically investing in its resources. 2017 will be a harvest year for the automotive millimeter-wave radar industry.
6. Cameras make cars more sensitive: Binocular cameras
Vehicle cameras are the main visual sensors for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), converting images into digital signals to enable the perception of road conditions around the vehicle and help achieve ADAS functions such as forward collision warning, lane departure warning, and pedestrian detection.
Vehicle cameras are categorized into monocular cameras, binocular cameras, rearview cameras, stereo cameras, and surround-view cameras, with monocular cameras dominating the market. Currently, vehicle cameras are standard equipment in mid-to-high-end models, primarily used in reversing image systems, and the gradual replacement of rearview mirrors by vehicle cameras is a developing trend.
Currently, automotive parts giants such as Hitachi, Bosch, Valeo, Continental, Magna, and ZF TRW are the main manufacturers of automotive cameras. These companies are also continuing to increase their R&D investment, focusing on improving chips and algorithms. Mobileye is a leading global supplier of visual processing systems, holding over 90% of the global market share. Domestic camera algorithm companies mainly include Minieye, Shenzhen Qianxiang Qichuang, Maxieye, Nanjing Chuanglai Technology, and Zongmu Technology, which can implement warning and parking functions. Currently, only Shenzhen Qianxiang Qichuang and Zongmu Technology have entered the OEM market.
Specifically, binocular cameras utilize a principle similar to that of the human eye, primarily determining distance through parallax calculations between two images, resulting in greater accuracy. Zhongke Huiyan's binocular camera product has completed prototype development and is currently undergoing large-scale road testing. If the issues of cost and miniaturization can be resolved, binocular cameras will have a promising future.
7. Proactive measures to ensure safety: Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) technology
AEB is an active safety technology for automobiles. If the driver fails to apply the brake pedal in time, the AEB system will activate, causing the car to brake automatically, thus ensuring safe travel.
Currently, most major global automakers have their own pre-collision safety systems, although the names may differ slightly, their effects are essentially similar. Most international auto parts manufacturers, such as Bosch, TRW, Delphi, and WABCO, also have relatively mature AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) technology. Of course, domestic braking technology companies are also accelerating the development of AEB and related products. For example, Wanxiang Group, in conjunction with MINIEYE, jointly released the latest AEB prototype, with mass production expected in 2017.
In October 2016, ten major automotive brands, including Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Ford, and GM, signed an agreement to install AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking) systems in all new vehicles sold in the United States. Compared to the international adoption of AEB, its adoption in China has been relatively slower. However, judging from its development, automatic emergency braking technology has gradually matured and been launched on the market, and the AEB installation rate is expected to increase significantly next year.
It is understood that China's national standard for AEB has completed the project initiation and standard drafting work, and is expected to be released in 2017. The introduction of the new policy will surely drive my country's AEB market into a period of high growth.
8. Helping you see things you can't see right in front of you: Augmented Reality (AR) technology
Automotive "cutting-edge technologies" are changing the automotive ecosystem, and augmented reality (AR) technology can be considered one of them. AR technology is an interactive mode that uses computer processing capabilities to overlay virtual data onto the real environment and then displays it using the same image.
AR technology is gradually being implemented in automobiles. Currently, major automotive applications include head-up display (HUD) systems, such as Jaguar Land Rover's HUD technology, which can display maps, virtual driving routes, and other content on the windshield; and dedicated automotive AR glasses, such as the AR glasses launched by BMW in collaboration with Qualcomm, which allow drivers to see navigation data, driving speed, speed limit reminders, intersection information, and more while driving.
In terms of technological mastery, simple AR technology applications such as HUDs are already mastered by domestic and foreign automotive electronics component companies, and they have mature product applications. More advanced AR technologies are mainly in the hands of internet and computer software companies. Of course, domestic and foreign OEMs are also cooperating with these companies to explore the deep integration of AR technology with automobiles.
The development of self-driving cars requires AR technology to help achieve a better car experience and free people's hands and eyes. Once the pain points of technology application are solved, automotive AR technology will soon usher in a period of explosive growth.
9. More "human-centered" cars: Human-computer interaction technology
Human-computer interaction systems are a product of the development of information technology, enabling dialogue between humans and vehicles. Future self-driving cars will not be cold, impersonal machines, but rather human-like partners.
The design of automotive interaction systems determines the level of development of intelligent vehicles. Against the backdrop of the current rapid development of intelligent vehicles, automakers, component suppliers, and research institutions are all giving sufficient attention to human-machine interaction. International component giants such as Valeo and Delphi have conducted in-depth research, while domestic automotive electronics companies such as Hangsheng and Huayang have accumulated certain technological expertise in this area. Currently, common human-machine interaction systems include BMW's iDrive, Mercedes-Benz's COMAND, Audi's MMI, Volvo's Sensus, and Toyota's RemoteTouch.
Although human-computer interaction technology still has shortcomings, with the maturity of the technology, it has gradually spread from high-end models to domestic mid-range joint venture brand models, such as the HMI system of Changan Ford Mondeo and the G-BOOK system of GAC Toyota Camry; the representative of domestic independent brands is SAIC Roewe 350, whose inkaNet3G intelligent network driving system has richer functions.
Human-computer interaction (HCI) technology makes cars more "human-like," with user experience being the most important factor. This is the core of HCI technology, and in the future, motion-sensing interaction, eye-tracking interaction, biometrics, and voice interaction are likely to be trends in interaction design.
10. Turning Waste into Treasure: Automotive Energy Regeneration Technology
Regenerative braking is a crucial technology for electric and hybrid vehicles and is currently receiving widespread attention. In electric and hybrid vehicles, the kinetic energy wasted during deceleration and braking can be converted into electrical energy through regenerative braking technology and stored in the battery, which can then be further converted into driving energy. Therefore, regenerative braking technology is an important technology for improving energy efficiency and showcasing the advantages and characteristics of electric vehicle technology.
Currently, most electric and hybrid vehicles are equipped with regenerative braking systems. International auto parts companies such as Bosch, Continental, Valeo, and WABCO have mastered regenerative braking technology, and many domestic auto parts companies are also developing regenerative braking systems and have achieved some success.
Asia Pacific Automotive Electronic Control System Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Yuanfeng Automotive Electronic Control System Co., Ltd. are among the earliest companies in China to develop regenerative braking technology. Asia Pacific Automotive Electronic Control System has developed a regenerative braking system for new energy vehicles based on ABS, and its regenerative braking system for electric vehicles is currently being tested and installed on various new energy vehicle models from BAIC, Chery, Foton, and SAIC. Wuhan Yuanfeng Automotive Electronic Control System Co., Ltd. has collaborated with domestic automakers to develop a hydraulic ABS system based on regenerative braking, which can be applied to hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Furthermore, Chery's first plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the Arrizo 7 PHEV, and Changan's pure electric vehicle, the Ounuo EV, are both equipped with regenerative braking systems. In the future, with the development of electric and hybrid vehicles, regenerative braking technology will be widely adopted.
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