Foreword: This article analyzes from two aspects why my country's robot development has been so rapid.
China is the world's largest user of industrial robots. In 2016, my country sold 87,000 industrial robots, accounting for about 30% of the global market. Meanwhile, Europe and the Americas sold a total of 97,300 robots in 2016 (according to data from the International Federation of Robotics). Furthermore, between 2005 and 2016, China's operating inventory of industrial robots grew at an average annual rate of 38%.
What has driven the rise of robotics in China? In a recently published article, experts delve into the underlying factors behind the rapid development of industrial robots in the country. Through a new CEES (China Enterprise-Labor Matching Survey), experts collected the first batch of company-level robot usage data globally and provided possible explanations from both the supply and demand sides.
(The image shows the operational inventory of robots in major countries around the world in 2016.)
This chart illustrates China's significant advantage in the robotics industry. In 2016, the world's top five robot markets (China, Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Germany) accounted for 72% of the global robot operating inventory. In the same year, China's robot operating inventory surged to 339,970 units, representing 19% of the global total.
The Interaction Between Market Factors and Government Policies
China's industrial structure for robot applications is similar to that of major robot markets such as Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Germany. The automotive and electronics industries have the highest robot usage rates, accounting for 69.2% of total inventory. This is significant for the future development of robots in China. Since 2008, my country has been the world's largest automobile manufacturer. In fact, since 2009, my country's annual automobile production has exceeded the combined production of the United States and Japan. Furthermore, my country holds a dominant position in the global electronics industry: more than 70% of the world's computers and electronic products are manufactured in China. These industries will continue to expand, meaning that China will become an even more important user of robots in the future.
Researchers examined two sets of factors regarding demand. The first is the declining growth rate of the working-age population and rising wages, a problem many countries are grappling with. The second is China's industrial policy, driven by the urgent need to lead a new round of industrial revolution.
(The graph shows the declining growth trend of the population aged 15-64)
This chart shows the annual growth rate of the working-age population. It peaked in 2003 at approximately 17.7 million, but has been declining ever since, turning negative in 2015. Wages for urban workers have also been rising. From 2005 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of real wages for China's urban employed population was 10% (adjusted for China's GDP deflator), while the annual wage growth rate in manufacturing was 9.7%.
In addition to these market factors, the Chinese government has also been actively promoting the production and use of industrial robots in recent years. In 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Industrial Robot Industry." These measures were further strengthened after the launch of "Made in China 2025" in 2015. The plan aimed to produce 100,000 industrial robots annually by 2020, achieving a density of 150 robots per 10,000 workers. Furthermore, in 2016, the MIIT, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly released the "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" to promote the wider application of robots, such as in the service industry.
At the company level, research experts have found that two factors—labor market forces and government policy—are crucial in a company's decision to adopt robots. Companies with higher capital-labor ratios and higher employee wages are more likely to adopt robots. Regarding employee turnover, voluntary turnover is positively correlated with robot adoption, while involuntary turnover is negatively correlated (this suggests that employee turnover is a cause of robot adoption, not a consequence). Furthermore, 15% of companies using robots have received specific robot adoption subsidies, and companies whose CEOs are party members are more likely to adopt robots.
Current technological optimism
Given my country's proactive approach to promoting robot adoption and production through industrial policies, the Chinese government appears unconcerned about the potential harms of disruptive robotics. Similarly, interviews with company owners and employees revealed a lack of anxiety about robots replacing human workers. This has led researchers to offer possible explanations from the perspectives of the government, employers, and workers for China's optimistic outlook on robotics.
The government's policy-making is driven by the challenges of high labor costs and labor shortages, as well as the necessity to lead a new industrial revolution. The Chinese government views robotics (and automation) as a positive phenomenon and a necessary scientific and technological advancement for China's rise as a world power. Since the Opium Wars of the 1840s, China has suffered numerous foreign invasions, many of which were attributed to its technological backwardness at the time. To realize the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, my country must truly utilize science and technology.
For employers, labor challenges are indeed a significant consideration when adopting robots. For employees, high voluntary turnover and the lack of strong, independent unions may also reduce their dissatisfaction with robot use to some extent.
However, given the rapid development of robotics in my country, we still need to continue to pay attention to the future development of manufacturing enterprises.
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