However, for at least the next decade, future batteries will still be based on existing technology.
Lithium-ion batteries already hold an overwhelming leading position in the battery market, and competitors' technology may struggle to catch up. This lead will widen as planned new lithium-ion battery manufacturing plants come online within the next five years.
The mass production of batteries by newly built battery plants in countries such as my country, the United States, and Thailand will further drive down prices. Since 2010, lithium battery prices have plummeted by 85%. The billions of dollars invested in building and operating battery manufacturing plants will continue to improve lithium battery technology, rather than using other battery technologies to supply powerful power.
Many startups are now focused on upgrading lithium-ion battery technology. "We believe the development of lithium-ion batteries will not be hindered," said Erik Terjesen, senior director of licensing and strategy at Ionic Materials, a Massachusetts-based company dedicated to developing and refining solid-state battery technology.
But Ionic Materials' design isn't to replace lithium-ion batteries, but rather to improve upon them. Instead, the company's polymer electrolyte can be used within existing lithium-ion batteries. This means battery manufacturers can use it without adding new equipment. "Given all the investment in lithium-ion, we don't believe people would abandon this battery technology and start developing it all over again," Terjesen said.
The world's first lithium-ion battery was invented by a researcher at ExxonMobil in the 1970s and commercialized by Sony in 1991, and has been used for decades. Lithium-ion batteries work by transporting charged lithium atoms or ions through a liquid electrolyte between the positive and negative electrodes. Different materials, such as cobalt, nickel, and manganese, are used in the cathode to increase energy storage capacity. Initially found in consumer electronics (such as mobile phones), these batteries are now used in electric vehicles and in the power grid.
"Lithium-ion batteries have a wide range of applications, so as their costs decrease, more demand will open up," said Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. According to the company's research, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs was $1,160 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, falling to $176 per kilowatt-hour in 2018, and potentially dropping below $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2024. The continued decline in lithium-ion battery prices and improved performance could open up new markets.
Some people don't believe lithium batteries can do all that. Some automakers hope to develop a breakthrough technology that would allow long-range electric vehicles to travel 500 miles on a single charge, ultimately convincing skeptical consumers that their vehicles won't run out of power on the road. For example, Toyota holds more patents and patent applications for solid-state batteries than any other company and has invested $13.9 billion in its battery business.
Storing more renewable energy requires better battery technology. While companies like TSLA and Dynegy have begun connecting lithium-ion battery storage systems to the grid, these systems typically only provide power for a maximum of four hours. Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz stated in an industry media interview this February that short-duration storage systems will not help integrate large amounts of renewable energy. Moniz said, "These storage systems cannot continuously supply electricity for a day, a week, a month, or a quarter, which is why different battery technologies need to be developed." He recently co-authored a report calling for greater investment in battery research.
From flywheel energy storage to flow battery technology, many battery alternatives have failed to achieve greater success, while lithium-ion batteries are gaining increasing popularity. PrimusPower, a California-based company, has developed a flow battery capable of generating 25kW of power for five hours. The company's CEO, Tom Stepien, stated that improvements to the current design could increase the power supply time to seven to eight hours. When more power is needed, flow batteries can achieve this by using more liquid electrolyte.
Stepien likened it to "a sprinter in lithium-ion batteries, and a marathon runner in flow batteries." However, Stepien acknowledged the difficulty in persuading potential customers to adopt a less familiar battery technology. To date, PrimusPower has deployed 30 flow battery energy storage systems, primarily in the past three years. Stepien stated, "Lithium-ion batteries are easier to deploy, and every user will do it anyway."
Long-term energy storage has attracted companies that believe there is significant room for improvement in lithium batteries, not just incremental revenue.
Berdichevsky, co-founder and CEO of Sila Nanotechnology, said the company's technology could increase the energy storage capacity of lithium batteries by 20% or more.
"I believe lithium batteries can dominate the energy storage market, but we must enter new chemistry fields to do that," he said.
Sila has developed silicon-based powders that can be used to make lithium-ion battery anodes. At the atomic level, silicon can hold more lithium than carbon in graphite, the most common anode material, meaning batteries using Sila products can store more energy. To date, the company has invested approximately $125 million and has partnered with the BMW Group to develop the technology.
Berdichevsky stated that any competitor offering a completely different battery architecture will find it difficult to enter the market, as battery manufacturers are building new plants and battery costs continue to decline. According to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance survey, global lithium-ion battery production capacity has nearly tripled in the past five years, driven by increased electric vehicle production. Current capacity is 302.2 GWh, with another 603.8 GWh of battery plants planned to come online within the next five years.
Berdichevsky said, "The efficiency and scale of battery production are incredible. It's a huge investment, but we can develop and master these technologies, and I believe lithium batteries have a brighter future."
