Given the current situation of smog-choked cities and frequent PM2.5 spikes, developing and popularizing new energy vehicles is of significant practical importance. The surge in new energy vehicle adoption has led to a large number of retired lithium-ion batteries, prompting the industry to take preventative measures.
At the Third Meeting of the First Council of the Strategic Alliance for Technological Innovation in the Forced Recycling of Resources and the Fourth Symposium on the Recycling and Utilization of Power Lithium-ion Batteries, held in Beijing on November 8th, participants discussed the future prospects of retired power lithium-ion batteries. Many industry leaders stated that new energy batteries must prioritize long lifespan and avoid wasting resources by unilaterally increasing battery density. Adhering to the objective laws of sustainable development is crucial for achieving green and efficient industry development. This will rapidly advance my country's new energy industry and enable my country's automotive industry to overtake foreign technologies.
The target for the number of new energy vehicles in operation by 2020 is very realistic.
"The development trend of new energy vehicles is strong, and new energy vehicles are the key to my country's transformation from a large automobile country to a strong automobile country," said Yuan Chengyin, deputy general manager of BAIC New Energy. "This year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles should be 500,000 to 600,000 units. According to the national plan, it is a very realistic figure to reach 5 million new energy vehicles by 2020."
According to global market forecasts, the new energy vehicle market will enter a mature stage by 2030, and some countries, such as Germany, have announced that they will no longer produce gasoline cars after 2030. "Mercedes-Benz has proposed that 25% of its production will come from pure electric vehicles by 2025, and all automakers regard new energy vehicles as a huge market with unlimited potential for growth," Yuan Chengyin explained.
The core component of new energy vehicles is the power lithium-ion battery. Liu Qiang, Executive Vice President of the my country National Resources Recycling Association and Chairman of the Strategic Alliance for Technological Innovation of Compulsory Resource Recycling Industry, stated that the standard for scrapping power lithium-ion batteries in new energy vehicles is when the battery capacity drops below 80%, which means that power lithium-ion batteries need to be replaced every 3-5 years. In 2020, the amount of scrapped power lithium-ion batteries from pure electric passenger vehicles and hybrid passenger vehicles will reach 170,000 tons, making the recycling of waste power lithium-ion batteries a focus of industry attention.
Therefore, energy density and driving range are not the only indicators for the long-term development of new energy vehicles in my country. Instead, the focus should be on improving battery safety and the efficiency of bus operation, while ensuring sufficient driving range for daily commutes. At the same time, it is crucial to develop long-life batteries (emphasizing the entire lifecycle and operational cycle of new energy vehicles).
How to address the issue of discarded batteries arising from development?
my country's cobalt mines contain only 0.02% cobalt, and the currently proven recoverable reserves are only 40,000 tons. Currently, 60%-70% of cobalt is used in battery production, and my country heavily relies on imports. If cobalt could be effectively recovered from retired batteries or the problem of premature battery disposal could be solved, it would significantly alleviate my country's dependence on foreign rare metal resources.
Goldman Sachs estimates that current lithium carbonate demand is 160,000 tons per year, while every 1% increase in electric vehicle penetration will generate an additional 70,000 tons of lithium carbonate demand. By 2025, the rise of the electric vehicle market alone is expected to drive total lithium market demand to 470,000 tons. "The huge lithium carbonate gap is so large that even buying up all the lithium mines in Australia and Chile wouldn't be enough," Xu Shengming stated bluntly. It's clear that if the severity of the problem continues to be ignored, the new energy vehicle industry will face severe resource constraints in the future.
It is also projected that by 2020, the amount of scrapped lithium-ion batteries used in new energy vehicles will reach 170,000 tons. This staggering figure indicates that if the battery issue cannot be effectively resolved, it will become a cancer on the development of new energy vehicles.
Solving the problem of discarded batteries has become an urgent task, and experts have offered the following suggestions:
• Accelerate the widespread adoption of lithium titanate batteries, as they differ from graphite batteries in their ultra-long lifespan, effectively addressing the issue of discarded batteries.
• Further guidance and standardization have been strengthened for the recycling and utilization of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, clarifying the responsible parties for battery recycling and the methods for accountability;
Secondly, it is necessary to establish standardized recycling channels, actively guide power lithium-ion battery recycling companies, strengthen the recycling and utilization of waste batteries, and encourage the development of specialized companies;
Furthermore, we encourage innovation in battery research, develop key technologies, and intensify efforts in the dismantling, reassembly, testing, and life prediction of waste batteries to improve production reliability and efficiency in the dismantling and recycling process, making the recycling of power lithium-ion battery materials and the reuse of batteries economically feasible and safe.
