Although each bicycle uses a different lithium battery solution, the solutions are mostly concentrated in the range of 48V10Ah, 48V12Ah, and 48V15Ah. Roughly estimating based on an average bicycle power consumption of 0.6 kWh, 30 million bicycles * 0.6 kWh = 18 GWh.
A "lithium battery revolution" is sweeping across the entire electric bicycle industry in China.
Recently, GGII (Gaogong Lithium Battery Research Institute) learned from power battery companies that the demand for batteries in the electric bicycle market has surged this year, with production capacity even falling short of demand.
The surge in demand for lithium batteries for electric bicycles comes against the backdrop of the mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" (GB17761-2018), which went from being submitted for approval in January to being officially promulgated and implemented in May. Electric bicycle manufacturers have been actively seeking to upgrade their models.
According to technical specifications, electric bicycles must be pedal-powered, with a maximum design speed of no more than 25 km/h, a total weight (including battery) of no more than 55 kg, a motor power of no more than 400 W, and a battery nominal voltage of no more than 48 V.
Which is better, lead-acid batteries or lithium batteries?
All of these indicators clearly point to the market substitution of lithium batteries.
In line with the policy environment, leading electric bicycle companies such as Yadea, Aima, Xinri, and Niu have made early arrangements and seized the opportunity to develop lithium batteries, which has also driven the rapid growth of the bicycle lithium battery market.
It is worth mentioning that although there was an 11-month transition period after the new national standard was issued, major cities have begun to take serious action in managing electric vehicles in accordance with the new standard. Currently, cities including Beijing, Hangzhou, and Wenzhou have taken the lead in strictly regulating, banning the sale of, and investigating and punishing electric bicycles that exceed the standard.
"Previously, the talk about lithium batteries in electric bicycles was just lukewarm rhetoric, but now we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel," said a lithium battery industry professional.
>>>>The giants' shift towards lithium batteries
With the inevitable implementation of the new mandatory national standard, lithium batteries, which have advantages such as light weight, large capacity, and many charge-discharge cycles, have become the main focus of product development for various electric bicycle companies.
Chen Kaiya, director of the president's office of Xinri Electric Vehicle, publicly stated that in order to comply with the new national standard, Xinri established a new national standard response team early on, taking lithium battery technology as a breakthrough point, and made early arrangements in the high-end lithium battery product market, in order to gain an advantage in the new round of industry reshuffling.
It is understood that currently only 14 electric vehicle companies, including Xinri, Aima, Yadea, Lima, Luyuan, Tailing, Xindazhou, Xinlei, Lvneng, Lvjia, Phoenix, Xiaoniu, Jinjian, and Xinben Okada, have been awarded the title of "First Batch of Electric Bicycle Manufacturers that Meet the New National Standard".
Industry insiders generally believe that electric bicycles will likely be subject to tiered management in the future, and will be divided into three categories: electric bicycles, light electric motorcycles, and electric motorcycles.
Therefore, in addition to launching lithium-ion battery electric bicycles that meet the new national standards, electric bicycle giants have also begun to aggressively expand into the lithium-ion battery electric motorcycle market.
Recently, electric bicycle giants Yadea and Niu both released lithium-ion battery-powered electric motorcycles, creating an unprecedented buzz in the industry. First, Yadea Technology Group, in collaboration with 16 global suppliers, launched the Diamond Edition electric motorcycle in Shanghai. Following closely behind, Niu released two new electric motorcycles, the M+ and N-GT, at the Louvre Museum in Paris.
Which is better, lead-acid batteries or lithium batteries?
It can be seen that the giants are starting to focus their new products on the electric motorcycle sector. Although there is a certain degree of suspicion of "playing on the edge" in this regard, it is certain that product upgrading and lithium battery integration have become important strategic directions for them.
>>>>A New Blue Ocean of 18 GWh/Year
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are currently about 200 million electric bicycles in use in China, with an annual production of more than 30 million. However, lithium battery products account for only about 10% of the total.
According to GGII (Gaogong Lithium Battery Research Institute), although the lithium battery solutions used in each bicycle are different, they are mostly concentrated in the range of 48V10Ah, 48V12Ah, and 48V15Ah. Roughly estimating based on an average bicycle power consumption of 0.6KWh, 30 million bicycles * 0.6KWh = 18GWh.
Which is better, lead-acid batteries or lithium batteries?
This means that if lithium batteries fully replace lead-acid batteries in the electric bicycle market, there will be a market growth potential of more than 18 GWh per year.
In fact, such potential and huge market growth has already begun to emerge among lithium battery manufacturers.
Xiao Jie, marketing manager of EVE Energy, revealed that since the beginning of this year, one electric bicycle manufacturer alone has placed orders for more than one million lithium batteries per month, indicating that the demand for lithium batteries in the electric bicycle market will be considerable in the future.
As a leading supplier of lithium batteries for electric bicycles in Europe and China, Xingheng Power is also experiencing a significant increase in market demand. In order to cope with the upcoming market boom, it has made preparations in terms of production capacity.
In fact, due to the deteriorating competitive environment in the main battlefield of power batteries, many lithium battery companies are looking for new opportunities in other niche markets. Among them, some lithium battery companies have set their sights on the electric two-wheeler/bicycle market.
"Currently, electric bicycle batteries account for a large portion of the company's production capacity, and the demand is now exceeding supply. The Zhuhai production line is also actively increasing its lithium battery production capacity for electric bicycles," said Liu Jiansheng, Dean of the Power Battery Research Institute of Penghui Energy.
It is worth noting that GGII also learned from various sources that, due to the diverse functional requirements of electric bicycle manufacturers for their models, there are different requirements in terms of intelligence, digitalization, and system integration solutions. Therefore, they tend to cooperate with third-party PACK manufacturers, who then assist in the procurement of battery cells.
>>>>The Opportunities and Challenges of Domestically Produced Lithium Batteries
The implementation of the new national standard will undoubtedly bring a new wave of market vitality to the domestic lithium battery industry. However, in terms of product quality, safety performance, and consumer experience, it will not be easy for domestic lithium battery manufacturers to truly gain a share of the market.
Firstly, regarding quality and safety. It is understood that 18650 batteries offer advantages such as high automation in production, good stability, high replaceability, and relatively low cost. Currently, the battery models used in domestically produced lithium-ion electric bicycles are primarily 18650.
However, the biggest drawback of the 18650 battery is that its individual cell capacity is low, so a large number of cells are required and battery management is more complex. This leads to the need for thermal management when the 18650 battery is working. Due to the small temperature difference inside the individual cells, it is difficult to keep the temperature difference of the entire battery pack within a suitable range.
In the price-sensitive electric bicycle sector, lithium battery manufacturers still face considerable challenges in achieving excellent battery safety management while maintaining low costs.
Secondly, there is the issue of cutthroat competition within the industry. Currently, there are numerous domestic manufacturers producing 18650 batteries, leading to severe product homogenization. In a profit-driven market, price wars and the proliferation of inferior products are inevitable. Therefore, the market needs to be wary of a situation where bad money drives out good.
Thirdly, there is the market impact from top-tier international battery manufacturers. Recently, new products released by Yadea and Niu have all carried international labels such as "Panasonic" and "LG." To gain a foothold in the high-end market, imported batteries have become an important choice for electric bicycle manufacturers.
GGII (Gaogong Lithium Battery Research Institute) has also noted that Panasonic is making significant strides in the Chinese electric bicycle market. In this subsidy-free sector, consumer demand dictates market dominance, and as consumer spending levels rise, imported batteries are likely to occupy a more important position.
Fourth, the market position of lead-acid batteries in third- and fourth-tier cities and below is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. On the one hand, lead-acid batteries still have advantages in price range and marketing network that lithium batteries cannot match; on the other hand, new technologies that promote the performance improvement of lead-acid batteries are still emerging.
In the long run, the death knell for lead-acid batteries in the electric bicycle industry has been sounded, and lithium-ion batteries will become an unstoppable trend. However, in the next 2-3 years, lithium-ion batteries and lead-acid batteries will still coexist.
